When Robert
Mugabe got into power in 1980, he was cocksure his scientific socialism would bring
economic prosperity to the masses, “Gutsva ruzhinji!” as he never tired of
saying. Instead of build on the robust and vibrant economy he had inherit at
independence he destroyed it. Instead of delivering mass prosperity he
delivered mass poverty.
When
President Emmerson Mnangagwa took over from Mugabe following the November 2017 military
coup; “military assisted transition”, as the coup plotters insisted in calling
it; he was cocksure he would revive Zimbabwe’s comatose economy and everyone
will live happily ever after! He was sure there would be a flood of investors
in answer to his “Zimbabwe is open for business!” clarion call.
Sadly,
there was not even a single investor much less a flood!
Mugabe’s
Zimbabwe was renowned for gross mismanagement, rampant corruption and rank
lawlessness marked it as pariah state. The decades of the criminal waste of human
and material resources was the root cause of the economic meltdown. The November
2017 coup had not addressed any of these underlying problems and by blatantly
rigging the July 2018 elections, Mnangagwa had confirmed that Zimbabwe was
still a pariah state. Investors are a shrewd and savvy lot; they were not going
to do any business in a pariah state!
By the
late 1990s it was clear to Robert Mugabe that his regime had failed to deliver
Gutsva ruzhinji and to stay in power he resorted to the use of violence. The
2008 elections were particularly hard for Mugabe and Zanu PF as they took place
at a time when the Zimbabwe economy had all but collapsed.
The
collapse of the country’s agricultural sector, triggered by the seizure of the
white owned farms that started in 2000, coupled with the voodoo-economic of
printing money had fuelling the hyperinflation peaking at to world record
heights of 500 billion percent in 2008! The Z$ was a worthless piece of paper,
pensions, life-savings and investments lost their value, etc. The Zimbabwe
electorate were angry with Zanu PF and were desperate for change.
“If
there was Mugabe and the donkey on the ballot, people will vote for the donkey!”
remarked Professor Jonathan Moyo, at the time!
Mugabe
and Zanu PF were soundly beaten by Morgan Tsvangirai and his MDC in the March
2008 vote. Zanu PF, notably Mnangagwa who boasted about it, stop the results
being announces and ordered a recount that was to last six weeks. Mugabe
admitted in a Freudian slip that Tsvangirai had garnered 73% of the votes and
the recount had whittled that down to 47% to justify a run-off.
To
make sure that Mugabe was going to win the run-off, Zanu PF launched “Operation
Mavhotera papi!” (Operation Whom did you vote for!) This was a rhetorical
question to the electorate who were being punished for having voted for
Tsvangirai in the March vote.
Zanu
PF mobilised the militant war veterans and the party’s militia youths, the green-bombers
(nicknamed after the green fly feeds and lay its maggots on faeces) as the
foot-soldiers in the reign of terror that was to follow. The Army, Police, CIO
and Prison Service personal provided the plains, backup and cover to the foot-soldiers
and also carried out the tougher assignments such as the abductions and cold-blooded
murders.
Millions
of Zimbabweans had their property destroyed, beaten and/or raped and over 500
were murdered during Operation Mavhotera papi.
“Zanu
PF has declared war on the people!” said Tsvangirai when he announced his
withdrawal from the run-off!
We
have come a full circle!
Now
that it is clear to Mnangagwa that his “Zimbabwe is open for business!” is well
and truly dead in the water and the country’s economic melt is not as bad as
2008 but is sure heading that way. He knows that the Zimbabwean people are once
again desperate for change and would want to see the coming 2023 elections deliver
that change. His reaction is to once again mobilise the foot-soldiers and all
for Operation Mavhotera papi mark 2 with a subtle difference!
Zanu
PF will be going into the 2023 elections with a well-oiled vote rigging
juggernaut. Unlike in 2008 when the party had to stop the counting and took six
weeks cooking the vote count; the party must control every aspect of the
election process and intervene early to ensure party victory. The party must
deny a whole segment of the electorate, such as those in diaspora, the vote. Once
again, there will be no verified voters’ roll and the party must exploit the many
opportunities this gives to rig the vote; etc.
Mnangagwa
is mobilising the coercive component of Operation Mavhotera papi now, 28 months
before the elections.
"In our political mobilisation matrix, our women and youth leagues must
not be left behind. I commend the Youth League for their recent successful
mobilisation efforts," Mnangagwa told party members,” instructed his Zanu
PF Central Committee meeting.
"However, much more needs to be done by the Youth League structures at
provincial, district, branch and cell levels to encourage their peers to join
the party as voters.
"To this end, joint grassroots mobilisation activities between leagues of
the party and its affiliate organisations must now saturate the political space.
"War veterans are challenged to display their unflinching war time
vibrancy and mobilisation acumen as we prepare for 2023 elections."
No
doubt the Joint Operation Command (JOC) comprising the top brass in the Army,
Police, CIO and Prison Services who provided the plans, backing, etc. in the
2008 Operation Mavhotera papi have the revised plans, personal, everything
ready for deployment.
The
early deployment of the coercive arm is to remind the voters they will be
punished if the voted for the opposition. The violence will be turned down
during the campaigning period when election observers are around and thus creating
the impression the whole election was free of violence. This is project harvest
fear!
Mnangagwa
and Zanu PF have failed to revive the economy but be that as it is, the regime
is making sure that there will be no regime change. There will be no reforms implemented
and the will be no free, fair and credible elections in 2023.
The
nation had its best chance ever to get the reforms implemented during the 2008
to 2013 GNU. Sadly, Morgan Tsvangirai and his MDC friends who were given the
task of implementing the reforms took their eyes off the ball. Mugabe bribed
the lot with the trappings of high office are the rest is history.
Still,
the economic and social situation in Zimbabwe is desperate; 50% of the
population are living in abject poverty, education and health care have all but
collapsed, etc. The cup is full and overflowing. This cannot go on for much
longer, change is coming.
Mnangagwa
can be pushed to accept change by the nation refusing to participate in the
2023 elections until the reforms are implemented. This has been hard to do
because it was none other the MDC leaders who have broken rank and participated
in the flawed elections for the sake of the few gravy train seats Zanu PF was
dangling.
It is
almost certain that Nelson Chamisa and his MDC A and the rest in the opposition
camp will be participating in the 2023 elections with no reforms in place. The
task here will be to convince Zimbabweans and SADC leaders the elections were a
farce and should be declared null and void. The rest of the international
community will not need any convincing the elections were rigged, they know
that already as their 2018 election reports clearly stated.
Declaring
the 2023 elections null and void will put Zimbabwe in exactly the same
political situation the country was in after the international community rejected
the 2008 elections process. The country will be forced to form another GNU and,
this time, make sure the reforms are implemented.
If Zanu
PF continues to resist peaceful change, the party should know that it is
leaving the nation with no other choice but to have violent change. And
Mnangagwa and his Zanu PF cronies will be responsible for all the death and destruction
that violence will entail!