December 19 2008
Tsvangirai tells the world that MDC will suspend all the power sharing negotiations with Mugabe unless all abductions of human rights activists and MDC supporters stopped. The 41 already abducted were to be either be charged or realised. Tsvangirai gave Mugabe until the 1 st January 2009 to meet his demands.
(The truth is talks had actually stalled over the sharing of key ministerial positions, governorships and host of other things. Meanwhile Mugabe had proceeded to make some key appointments; appointed all the new Governors, AG and Reserve Bank Governor – all staunch Zanu PF supporters- without consulting or sharing these positions with MDC as agreed in the spirit of GPA.)
December 23 2008
Some of the people abducted are charged of banditry or recruiting other for training – charges that carry death penalty. Some of the abducted individuals were reportedly tortured whilst in custody.
December 29 2008
Media report that Tsvangirai has been writing to President Kgalema Motlanthe of SA asking him (over the head of former President Thembo Mbeki who is still the official mediator) to set up a meeting between Mugabe and himself to discuss outstanding power issues.
(The move left observers wondering whether Tsvangirai had already forgotten that he threatened to end the talks. Or was the MDC-T leader trying to get the stalled talks going again. So that come 1St January, and his condition had not been met, he would have talks to walkout of. What a clever a trap! Of course there were no takers.)
January 1 2009
Tsvangirai deadline; 19 out of the 41 the abducted people have been charged and the where-about of the remaining 12 are not known.
Those waiting to hear from Tsvangirai were to be disappointed; not a word from Tsvangirai.
(People hold on to the hope that the 12 will all turn up at some Police Station, but with each passing day the fear that they were murdered increases.)
January 9 2009
Tsvangirai tells the world that the key leaders within his party would join him in SA to discuss the party’s next move.
(The media is awash with rumours that MDC-T was splitting up. Given Tsvangirai’s poor performance as party leader; a split was not be a bad thing. If the party had been truly democratic as they claim to be, then it would not have made so many blunders. One can only hope that the party had learnt something from their past mistakes and a change of guard will be the best opportunity to take on board the learnt lessons.)
January 15 2009
State produce three out of the 12 abducted persons who were still missing.
MDC announces that the party’s leadership would be returning to Zimbabwe and on Sunday the party’s leader, Tsvangirai, will chair the party’s National Executive, the party’s decision making body. The NE would decide on the vexing question of whether or not to join the GNU.
(Common sense dictates that a GNU with Zanu PF as a junior partner would have been a headache. But one in which Zanu PF was the major partner in control of key positions would be unworkable. And to have Mugabe leading the GNU was a definite no!
Ever since the launch of MDC many of the top leadership had dreamt of the day they will in power and can enjoy the luxuries so far enjoyed by Mugabe and his cronies. Now tens years latter these men and women can not wait another day, they are itching to be Prime Minister, Minister, etc. At present GNU offers them the best chance yet.
Common sense tells them the GNU would not work but greed is having the upper hand. They know Mugabe will deny them any real power but they also know when it comes to bribing the ruling elite his generosity knows no bounds.
Indeed Tsvangirai’s hand was forced to make the demand after growing public criticism that he was ignoring the abductions. Having made the demand he was under pressure to stand firm and not dither as he did on numerous occasions in the past.
At the time MDC signed the GPA the party faced the same clear choices and greed won the day then. But after four months of meaningless arguing, confirming the very things common sense had said would happen and worse, it is a lot more difficult now to pretend the GNU has anything to offer.
Tsvangirai has spent weeks agonising over whether or not to kill off GNU not because the choices before him are not clear. After four months of bickering over nothing it is clear the GNU is a lead balloon that would never ever rise, he does not have the guts to admit it. Besides he is eyeing the Prime Minister post with beady eyes. He is also aware that the public are watching him very closely another stupid decision from him and he would have to fall on his own sword! So instead of making the decision himself he called on the top leadership in his own party to make the call.
Like Tsvangirai, MDC’s top brass too can not wait to join the ruling elite. They argued Tsvangirai to sign the GPA and have been egging him all along. When the power sharing began to falter many of the top brass took the backseat leaving Tsvangirai to carry the bag on his own. They wanted Tsvangirai to continue with the GNU but and should it fail to take off they would blame Tsvangirai. They would knife him in the back and take over.
By asking the party’s top brass to make the decision Tsvangirai has forced those seating on the fence to come out in the open. So those plotting a palace coup found themselves the victim of a coup de grace!
January 18 2009
There are three options before the MDC NE and the whole world is waiting to see which one the party will pick:
a) Greed option- Join GNU, Tsvangirai will become PM at long last and almost all MDC NE members are assured of some position and so they will all enjoy the spoils of power. Mugabe will not allow MDC members to exercise any really power but will not begrudge them the ministerial car, etc.
The price to be paid for greed: GNU will achieve nothing. Mugabe has long abandoned any pretence of serving public interest- he lost public support a long time ago. He is in power because he has kept the ruling elite happy and it is their interests he now serves. The ruling elite not only own key resources like land, they are the ones benefiting from the country’s mineral wealth and whatever else the regime can lay its fingers on.
The country’s key public institutions such as hospitals and schools have closed because of lack of funds, for example. And yet the regime has continued to spend millions of US dollars buying luxury cars for Judges, Ministers, etc.
Rest assured Mugabe will not want anything done to threaten his political power base. On the other hand there will be NO meaningful economic recovery as long as key resources like land remain in unproductive hands and the little wealth the nation has is wasted on luxuries.
With all the best will in the world, no outsiders are going to throw good money after bad financing Mugabe’s corruption. The GNU will be have all the appearance of MDC but in fact will remain Mugabe through and through. No one will be fooled by the whitewashed appearance.
The GNU is set to last another four years – four years of the same criminal waste of resources and repression. After all the nation has gone through, surely Zimbabwe deserve better. As for MDC’s leadership they will lose all credibility with the people and their stay in office will be a very short one.
b) Common sense option – end all the pretence that the GNU was ever going to work.
The price for making the right choice: win-win for MDC and the nation. Tsvangirai has good reasons to break off the talks; the failure to charge or realise all the 41 abducted people should be considered the last straw that broke the camel’s back. Mugabe has failed to honour the word and spirit of the GPA repeatedly in the past.
Besides, Tsvangirai should have never signed the GPA on the 15 September 2008; it was the biggest blunder so far of his entire political career. Here now has the chance of redeeming himself and put things right. He would be foolish not to seize this unique opportunity to do just that. He would be crazy to compound his first blunder by joining the GNU.
Mugabe will probably form the GNU with MDC-Mutambara. That will have no effect on Mugabe’s set goals or the regime’s performance. MDC-T’s set objective will then be to ensure this GNU does not go the four-year distance.
The party can disrupt the rub-stamping parliament from passing the 19 Amendment which is now before the house. The party can later resign on-mass and field the same individuals in the bye-elections that follow.
Mugabe had his hands serious burnt because of the naked acts of intimidation, violence and murder he was forced to resort to “win” the presidential run-off on 27 June 2008. He would be loathed to resort to that again. If he did he will be back in the dog-house and this time Tsvangirai will not be there to bail him out. And without violence Mugabe knows no one remotely associated with him will ever win a free and fair election in Zimbabwe!
The sooner the country can hold fresh election the sooner the nation can see the back of Mugabe and his reign of terror and criminal waste of the country’s materials and human resources.
c) Third option is for the party to post-pone making its decision on whether they will join the GNU or not.
MDC will shy away from making the tough choice now and seek to put this off to some date in the future or let others make the decision for them.
The party top brass can call for nationwide rallies to “Consult the People!” and at the end of the sham exercise announces the decision they wanted all along. Or they can send yet another petition to SADC and AU asking them to address the party’s outstanding concerns.
This option would appeal to Tsvangirai; it has all the pretence of being him being tough and decisive when in fact the opposite is true. And when the party finally decide to join the GNU, which is what the leadership really want, they can blame the people or SADC for having forced that decision on them.
No one is going to be fooled by the dithering; we will all know MDC will join the GNU it is just angling for some face-saving excuse before it joins. The ultimate price for the nation is exactly the same as b) above.
The world will know soon enough what Tsvangirai and his party are up to next. The fact that the party leader himself and now the top brass have all agonised for months over such a clear cut issue in bad omen. If they have to agonise over a common sense decision how will they manage over the more difficult and complex challenges ahead? If after all the agonising, they still make the wrong decision then God help Zimbabwe. Because we will need all the heavenly help in the months ahead, the nightmare has only just began!
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