SUMMARY As Christopher W. Dell leaves Zimbabwe after three years as American ambassador, he sends a frank account of its aging, erratic leader, Robert Mugabe.
DATE 2007-07-13 10:04:00
SOURCE Embassy Harare
CLASSIFICATION CONFIDENTIAL
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000638
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR P, AF, AND AF/S FOR MOZENA AND HILL, NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN AND B. LEO; USAID FOR M. COPSON AND E. LOKEN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2017 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ZI SUBJECT: The End is Nigh
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4b/d
1. (C) Having said my piece repeatedly over the last three years, I won't offer a lengthy prescription for our Zimbabwe policy. My views can be stated very simply as stay the course and prepare for change. Our policy is working and it's helping to drive change here. What is required is simply the grit, determination and focus to see this through. Then, when the changes finally come we must be ready to move quickly to help consolidate the new dispensation.
THE SITUATION
2. (C) Robert Mugabe has survived for so long because he is more clever and more ruthless than any other politician in Zimbabwe. To give the devil his due, he is a brilliant tactitian and has long thrived on his ability to abruptly change the rules of the game, radicalize the political dynamic and force everyone else to react to his agenda. However, he is fundamentally hampered by several factors: his ego and belief in his own infallibility; his obsessive focus on the past as a justification for everything in the present and future; his deep ignorance on economic issues (coupled with the belief that his 18 doctorates give him the authority to suspend the laws of economics, including supply and demand); and his essentially short-term, tactical style.
3. (C) While his tactical skills have kept him in power for 27 years, over the last seven this has only been achieved by a series of populist, but destructive and ultimately self-defeating moves. In reaction to losing the 2000 referendum on the constitution, a vengeful Mugabe unleashed his QGreen BombersQ to commit land reform and in the process he destroyed ZimbabweQs agricultural sector, once the bedrock of the economy. While thousands of white farmers saw their properties seized, hundreds of thousands of black Zimbabweans lost their livelihoods and were reduced to utter poverty. In 2005, having been forced to steal victory by manipulating the results of an election he lost, Mugabe lashed out again, punishing the urban populace by launching Operation Murambatsvina. The result was wholesale destruction of the informal sector, on which as much as 70-80 percent of urban dwellers had depended, and the uprooting of 700,000 Zimbabweans. The current inflationary cycle really began with Murambatsvina, as rents and prices grew in response to a decrease in supply.
4. (C) And now, faced with the hyperinflationary consequences of his ruinous fiscal policies and growing reliance on the printing press to keep his government running, Mugabe has launched Operation Slash Prices. This has once again given him a very temporary boost in popularity (especially among the police, who have led the looting of retail outlets and now seem well positioned to take a leading role in the black market economy) at the cost of terrible damage to the country and people. Many small grocery and shop owners, traders, etc., will be wiped out; the shelves are increasingly bare; hunger, fear, and tension are growing; fuel has disappeared. When the shelves are still empty this time next week, the popular appeal of the price roll back will evaporate and the government simply does not have the resources to replace the entire private commercial sector and keep Zimbabweans fed. It may attempt to do so by printing more money, adding even more inflationary pressure on a system already reeling from the GOZQs quasi-fiscal lunacy combined with the price impact of pervasive shortages. The increasingly worthless Zim dollar is likely to collapse as a unit of trade in the near future, depriving the GOZ of its last economic tool other than sheer thuggery and theft of others’ assets.
5. (C) With all this in view, I’m convinced the end is not
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far off for the Mugabe regime. Of course, my predecessors and many other observers have all said the same thing, and yet Mugabe is still with us. I think this time could prove different, however, because for the first time the president is under intensifying pressure simultaneously on the economic, political and international fronts. In the past, he could always play one of these off against the other, using economic moves to counter political pressure or playing the old colonial/race/imperialist themes to buy himself breathing room regionally and internationally. But he is running out of options and in the swirling gases of the new Zimbabwean constellation that is starting to form, the economic, political and international pressures are concentrating on Mugabe himself. Our ZANU-PF contacts are virtually unanimous in saying reform is desperately needed, but won't happen while the Old Man is there, and therefore he must go (finding the courage to make that happen is another matter, however, but even that may be coming closer). This is not some sudden awakening on the road to Damascus, but a reflection of the pain even party insiders increasingly feel over the economic meltdown. We also get regular, albeit anecdotal, reports of angry and increasingly open mutterings against Mugabe even in ZANU-PF's traditional rural bastions. Beginning in March, the other SADC leaders finally recognized (in the wake of the terrible beatings of March 11 and the international outcry that followed Q another self-inflicted wound for Mugabe) that Zimbabwe is a problem they need to address. Thabo Mbeki appears committed to a successful mediation and is reportedly increasingly irritated with Mugabe’s efforts to manipulate him or blow him off altogether. If Mugabe judges that he still commands all he surveys by virtue of being the elder statesman on the scene, he may be committing yet another serious blunder. Finally, one does well to recall that the only serious civil disturbances here in a decade came in 1998 over bread shortages, showing that even the famously passive Shona people have their limits. The terror and oppression of the intervening years have cowed people, but it’s anyone’s guess whether their fear or their anger will win out in the end.
WHAT WILL THE END LOOK LIKE
6. (C) This is the big, unanswerable question. One thing at least is certain, Mugabe will not wake up one morning a changed man, resolved to set right all he has wrought. He will not go quietly nor without a fight. He will cling to power at all costs and the costs be damned, he deserves to rule by virtue of the liberation struggle and land reform and the people of Zimbabwe have let him down by failing to appreciate this, thus he need not worry about their well-being. The only scenario in which he might agree to go with a modicum of good grace is one in which he concludes that the only way to end his days a free man is by leaving State House. I judge that he is still a long way from this conclusion and will fight on for now.
7. (C) The optimal outcome, of course, and the only one that doesn't bring with it a huge risk of violence and conflict, is a genuinely free and fair election, under international supervision. The Mbeki mediation offers the best, albeit very slim, hope of getting there. However, as Pretoria grows more and more worried about the chaos to its north and President Mbeki’s patience with Mugabe's antics wears thin, the prospects for serious South African engagement may be growing. Thus, this effort deserves all the support and backing we can muster. Less attractive is the idea of a South African-brokered transitional arrangement or government of national unity. Mbeki has always favored stability and in his mind this means a ZANU-PF-led GNU, with perhaps a few MDC additions. This solution is more likely to prolong than resolve the crisis and we must guard against letting Pretoria dictate an outcome which
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perpetuates the status quo at the expense of real change and reform.
8. (C) The other scenarios are all less attractive: a popular uprising would inevitably entail a bloodbath, even if it were ultimately successful; Mugabe’s sudden, unexpected death would set off a stampede for power among ZANU-PF heavy weights; a palace coup, whether initiated within ZANU-PF or from the military - in which Mugabe is removed, killed, exiled or otherwise disposed of, could well devolve into open conflict between the contending successors. Similarly, some form of "constitutional coup" i.e., a change at the top engineered within the framework of ZANU-PF’s "legitimate" structures could well prove to be merely the opening bell in a prolonged power struggle. None of the players is likely to go quietly into the night without giving everything they have, including calling on their supporters in the security services. Moreover, experience elsewhere would suggest that whoever comes out on top initially will struggle, and more than likely fail, to halt the economic collapse. Thus, there is a good prospect of not one but a series of rapid-fire transitions, until some new, stable dispensation is reached.
9. (C) The final, and probably worst, possibility is that Mugabe concludes he can settle for ruling over a rump Zimbabwe, maintaining control over Harare and the Mashona heartland, the critical forces of the National Reserve Force and CIO and a few key assets Q gold, diamonds, platinum and Air Zimbabwe to fund the good times. Under this scenario the rest of the country, in one of the comrade’s favorite phrases, could “go hang” leaving it to the international community to stave off the worst humanitarian consequences.
WHAT OF THE OPPOSITION
10. (C) ZimbabweQs opposition is far from ideal and I leave convinced that had we had different partners we could have achieved more already. But you have to play the hand you’re dealt. With that in mind, the current leadership has little executive experience and will require massive hand holding and assistance should they ever come to power.
11. (C) Morgan Tsvangarai is a brave, committed man and, by and large, a democrat. He is also the only player on the scene right now with real star quality and the ability to rally the masses. But Tsvangarai is also a flawed figure, not readily open to advice, indecisive and with questionable judgment in selecting those around him. He is the indispensable element for opposition success, but possibly an albatross around their necks once in power. In short, he is a kind of Lech Walesa character: Zimbabwe needs him, but should not rely on his executive abilities to lead the country's recovery. Arthur Mutambara is young and ambitious, attracted to radical, anti-western rhetoric and smart as a whip. But, in many respects he’s a light-weight who has spent too much time reading U.S. campaign messaging manuals and too little thinking about the real issues. Welshman Ncube has proven to be a deeply divisive and destructive player in the opposition ranks and the sooner he is pushed off the stage, the better. But he is useful to many, including the regime and South Africa, so is probably a cross to be borne for some time yet. The prospects for healing the rift within the MDC seem dim, which is a totally unnecessary self-inflicted wound on their part this time. With few exceptions Q Tendayi Biti, Nelson Chamisa Q the talent is thin below the top ranks. The great saving grace of the opposition is likely to be found in the diaspora. Most of Zimbabwe’s best professionals, entrepreneurs, businessmen and women, etc., have fled the country. They are the opposition’s natural allies and it is encouraging to see signs, particularly in South Africa and the UK, that these people are talking,
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sharing ideas, developing plans and thinking together about future recovery.
12. (C) Unfortunately, among the MDC's flaws is its inability to work more effectively with the rest of civil society. The blame for this can be shared on both sides (many civil society groups, like the NCA, are single-issue focused and take the overall dynamic in unhelpful directions; others, like WOZA, insist on going it alone as a matter of principle), but ultimately it falls to the MDC as the largest and the only true political party, to show the way. Once again, however, these are natural allies and they have more reason to work together than fight against each other.
STAYING THE COURSE, PREPARING FOR CHANGE
13. (C) If I am right and change is in the offing, we need to step up our preparations. The work done over the last year on transition planning has been extremely useful, both for stimulating a fresh look at our own assumptions and plans and for forging a common approach among the traditional donor community. But the process has lagged since the meetings in March in London and should be re-energized. It is encouraging in this respect that USAID Washington has engaged the Mission here in discussing how we would use additional resources in response to a genuinely reform-minded government. I hope this will continue and the good work done so far will survive the usual bloodletting of the budget process.
14. (C) The official media has had a field day recently whooping that "Dell leaves Zimbabwe a failed man". That's not quite how it looks from here. I believe that the firm U.S. stance, the willingness to speak out and stand up, have contributed to the accelerating pace of change. Mugabe and his henchman are like bullies everywhere: if they can intimidate you they will. But they're not used to someone standing up to them and fighting back. It catches them off guard and that's when they make mistakes. The howls of protest over critical statements from Washington or negative coverage on CNN are the clearest proof of how this hurts them. Ditto the squeals over “illegal sanctions”. In addition, the regime has become so used to calling the shots and dictating the pace that the merest stumble panics them. Many local observers have noted that Mugabe is panicked and desperate about hyperinflation at the moment, and hence he’s making mistakes. Possibly fatal mistakes. We need to keep the pressure on in order to keep Mugabe off his game and on his back foot, relying on his own shortcomings to do him in. Equally important is an active U.S. leadership role in the international community. The UK is ham-strung by its colonial past and domestic politics, thus, letting them set the pace alone merely limits our effectiveness. The EU is divided between the hard north and its soft southern underbelly. The Africans are only now beginning to find their voice. Rock solid partners like Australia don’t pack enough punch to step out front and the UN is a non-player. Thus it falls to the U.S., once again, to take the lead, to say and do the hard things and to set the agenda. Hundreds, maybe thousands, of ordinary Zimbabweans of all kinds have told me that our clear, forthright stance has given them hope and the courage to hang on. By this regime’s standards, acting in the interests of the people may indeed be considered a failure. But I believe that the opposite is true, and that we can be justifiably proud that in Zimbabwe we have helped advance the President’s freedom Agenda. The people of this country know it and recognize it and that is the true touchstone of our success here.
DELL
https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/11/28/world/20101128-cables-viewer.html#report/cables-07HARARE638
9 comments:
In a startling revelation, former Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) Deputy Director General Lovemore Itai Mukandi has claimed that President Emmerson Mnangagwa had been plotting the 2017 coup against former President Robert Mugabe for years, with roots tracing back to the Gukurahundi massacres of the 1980s.
In a recently released video and his new autobiography titled How Mnangagwa Blindsided Robert Mugabe and Grabbed Zimbabwe, Mukandi asserts that Mnangagwa, alongside General Constantino Chiwenga and the late Perence Shiri, felt threatened by the possibility of prosecution for their roles in the Gukurahundi atrocities. Mukandi's claims shed new light on the motivations behind the coup that ultimately led to Mnangagwa's ascension to power.
“Oh what a tangled web we weave
When first we practice to deceive”
Sir Walter Scott, Scottish author.
So there is a lot more to Mnangagwa’s endless economic and political shenanigans and devilish intrigue than just the insatiable love for power and wealth, the murderous thug is running away from justice. The wheels of justice turn but slowly and the thugs has managed, so far, to stay a block or two ahead.
The thing Mnangagwa had forgotten, as has many others criminals on the run, is that the wheels of justice turning slowly does not mean they have stop. And one day, there is a knock at your door. It is none other than Lady Justice in her full regalia; the scales is one hand and the sword to deliver the punish in the other!
The question Zimbabweans must once again ask ourselves is; How much long are we going to let these murderous Zanu PF thugs remain in office and drag the nation deeper and deeper into the abyss!
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‘Oh what a tangled web we weave/When first we practice to deceive,’ is a very ‘Shakespearean’ phrase, however, it is not from Shakespeare. It comes from an early nineteenth century Scottish author, Sir Walter Scott, best selling writer of novels, plays, and poems.
Like so very many of Shakespeare’s lasting observations it’s a beautifully expressed aphorism that uses just a few words to describe one life experience so perfectly, and is so true, that it enters into the English language and becomes one of its most powerful idioms – one that will last forever.
‘Oh what a tangled web we weave/When first we practice to deceive’ means that when you lie or act dishonestly you are initiating problems and a domino structure of complications which eventually run out of control.
The quote is from Scott’s epic poem, Marmion: A Tale of Flodden Field. It’s an historical romance in verse, published in 1808. It tells the tale of how one of Henry VIII’s courtiers, Lord Marmion, pursues his lust for a rich woman, Clara Clare. He and his mistress, a delinquent nun, Constance De Beverley, devise a scheme to implicate Clara’s fiancé in treason. It becomes chaotic and although Marmion appears to have won, by defeating Clara’s fiancé in a duel, Clara retires to a convent rather than endure his attentions.
The tangled web quote from this poem has made it into the realms of immortality, but while doing so, has left most of Scott’s very accomplished writing behind. To put it delicately, no-one reads Scott anymore. Some of his lines should have made it into the everyday language but haven’t: such lines as ‘look back and smile on perils past,’ ‘the will to do, the soul to dare,’ and ‘and come he slow, or come he fast, it is but death who comes at last,’ should have made it, but haven’t.
@ Lee-Roy
“Zvozo diyi kana ta rega nhai mkoma.
What other alternatives have you proffered and implemented chino batika besides venting at Chamisa?”
First you said you participated in the flawed elections because you did not know it was futile to do so. And now you admit that you were warned of the futility of participating but ignored the warning because “no other alternative was proffered”. So you accept that you were warned about the sheer futility of participating in flawed elections to give Zanu PF legitimacy and you ignored the warning.
The truth is you will never listen nor admit failure!
You were warned that Chamisa was lying about plugging all the vote rigging loop holes and that is was folly participating in flawed elections to give Zanu PF legitimacy. You not only paid no heed to the warning but even now you are refusing to accept that Chamisa lied!
You are a village idiot; you see but never perceive, hear and never comprehend. You are who you are - a village idiot who, in your stupidity of participating in flawed elections to give Zanu PF legitimacy, is now holding the whole nation to ransom!
“What alternative have you proffered?” So now you blame me for your stupidity in believe Chamisa’s idiotic lies these last 24 years!
@ Sithole
“Foolishness is criticizing other people from doing something that you're not able to do
@Wilbert Mukori you're a very good example of a nincompoop.
What do you think should be done to remove zanu pf from power???
If you have solutions, lead the way, we'll follow and give you support.
We'll nvr criticize your idea bt rather , we will be there until we, collectively achieve our goal. We are not going to waste our time barking like a horny dogs 🐕🐕🐕 on social media. Kana makangwara CDE, stop using the term you nkt tose tiri vana venyika imwechete, meaning you should use the term WE saka ukasadaro wangofanana nerume rine pen*s isingasimuki asi rosvora vanadzo vanotoberekesa kuti havagoni Mutambo wepabonde... kuzoda kuudzira vamwe zvarisina kumboravira chero negunwe (,, finger fucking.)”
“If you have solutions, lead the way, we'll follow and give you support.
We'll never criticise your idea but rather, we will be there until we, collectively achieve our goal!”
You have stubbornly refused to admit that Chamisa lied and conned million to participate in flawed to give Zanu PF legitimacy; was that because you believed he had solutions or was that part of your “we will never criticise” philosophy?
So you think I have been holding Chamisa’s account for selling out on implementing reforms, lying about plugging vote rigging loop holes, conning you lot to participate in flawed elections to give Zanu PF legitimacy, etc., etc. to woo you to follow me and not Chamisa? How mortifying! I do not want you or your fellow Chamisa Chete Chete brigade’s blind allegiance; you nincompoop.
I want to see a Zimbabwe whose citizens are educate, knowledgable, diligent and can think for themselves! The immediate task is stopping these Chamisa Chete Chete village idiots participating in 2028 elections and perpetuate the Zanu PF dictatorship!
@ Reentech
“Saka muchitukwa na Wiribheti Mukori...coz zvauri kutaura zvakafanana nokuti as long we don't have an alternative....kuti tikadzima moto the tovakei ....let's not stop putting out a fire that is flagrantly consuming our house .....you are not making any sense!Chamisa is the fire that needs to be put out ... consuming even the very slightest and ashen hope carried by progressive Zimbabweans!”
I would put is differently.
MDC had the opportunity to implement the reforms to stop Zanu PF rigging the elections; they wasted it and are now participating in flawed elections to give Zanu PF legitimacy in return for a few gravy train seats. The condition for getting the few gravy train seats is that MDC/CCC leaders must con their supporters to participate in the flawed elections.
These Chamisa Chete Chete village idiots have been warned on the sheer folly of participating in flawed elections only to give Zanu PF legitimacy and give Chamisa and company a few gravy train seats. All they and the rest of the populous ever get is suffer the consequences of perpetuating the dictatorship.
There is no denying Zanu PF is profiting from rigging the elections and staying in power. The regime has the opposition working for it, deceiving the people MDC/CCC is dismantling Zanu PF when in reality they are helping Zanu PF stay in power.
So if Zanu PF started the fire burning down the house, then Chamisa is encouraging his supporters to through fuel into the fire under the pretext fuel will put out the fire. The supporters can smell it is fuel, they have been warned it is fuel and that Chamisa will be rewarded by Zanu PF for helping to burn the house and keeping the people poor!
It is bad enough that Zimbabwe has millions of these brain dead Chamisa Chete Chete village idiots. To add insult to injury - the idiots have the vote. Universal suffrage is Zimbabwe’s worse curse today!
@ Lee Roy
Chamisa and company has been on the political stage for 24 years including 5 in the GNU, you have supported him sheepishly. What have they accomplished? Chamisa lied and conned millions of Zimbabweans to participate in flawed elections to give Zanu PF legitimacy and you do not even have the common sense to admit what happened! What a nincompoop!
https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1kvJpbnQQvXKE
This is the stuff wide-awake nightmares are made of! The nation is sinking deeper and deeper into the abyss and the tyrant lording over all our lives continues to witter about progress. Mnangagwa has rigged elections, he blatantly rigged 2023 elections, what he cannot do is rigged economic progress!
Some Zimbabweans voted in last week’s Mozambique elections and thus played a part in this dirty elections. This is a crying shame!
@ Marias Shumba
"Sean Mnangagwa is here (Rebuild). He is using a ghost name. He is here with us."
Well I for one am glad here is here so he can tell his father that he rigged the 2023 elections and therefore is illegitimate president. Whilst he rigged the elections he cannot rig economic progress. There is no economic progress and he must stop wittering nonsense!
ZANU-PF's seemingly tense conference has forced its first secretary, Emmerson Mnangagwa to publicly warn against routine disloyalty and signals his preparedness to thwart any possibility of disorder caused by revolutionary sellouts.
Setting tone for a drastic approach that his camp will embark on during the forthcoming Bulawayo conference (if there could be anything threatening his peace), Mnangagwa rhetorically quizzed in Ndebele dialect if there are sellouts amongst ZANU-PF central committee members.
"Silabathengisi yini lapha? [Do we have sellouts here?]" Mnangagwa rhetorically quizzed during sloganeering.
"Every leader of the party including ordinary members must contribute and stand by the side of the party. Our rhetoric and actions as cadres, must be reflective of this reality, both during the day and at night, in public and private," Mnangagwa warned.
Mnangagwa advised central committee members during the address that their meeting is different from talk shows, hence the need to conclude outstanding business, including pertinent resolutions of the 20th national people's conference and 7th National People's congress.
"ZANU-PF members must always be educated on the importance of genuine and correct party structures, starting at the lowest level, the cells and villages; moving up to branches and districts," Mnangagwa said.
"If each level is correctly constituted, then the party has a sustainable base and foundation. There is a need to always guard against infiltration and waywardness within party structures," Mnangagwa added.
Mnangagwa knows that Zimbabwe is drifting deeper and deeper into this economic and political hell-hole Zanu PF landed the nation int in 1980. He told the delegates to the conference of “economic progress” knowing fully well that he was lying; there is no economic progress. What is more, he knows that the delegates know he was lying too!
Ironically, Mnangagwa and his follow conspirators justified the 2017 military coup on the grounds that the economic meltdown and the tragic human suffering it caused was a recipe for social unrest. He thought his “Zimbabwe is open for business!” mantra was going to open the flood gate of investors to kick start the economic recovery. It did not happen. His “Zimbabwe inovakwa nevene vayo!” follow up mantra has too failed to revive the comatose economy.
Now that it is clear the economic rot is even worse now than it was during Mugabe’s days, Mnangagwa knows the fate he visited on Mugabe now awaits him. By rigging the elections he has stopped all hope of peaceful political change and now he must face violent change; street protests and/or another military coup.
The was not much bloodshed in November 2017 coup, there is no guarantee that this will happen again this time. Indeed, his repeated threats to crash the “sell outs” is stoke the fire increasing to pressure and force of the coming explosion. Mnangagwa and company have rigged elections and used brute force to stay in office out of greed for power and to escape justice for 44 years. They have now come to the end of the line. It is all over, the last thing the nation wants is a bloody end!
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