From the everyday
Mugabe signed the Global Political Agreement (GPA) in 2008 committing him and
Zanu PF to accepting democratic reform the next national elections were as good
as won for Tsvangirai and his MDC friends. Sadly MDC went on to lose the July
2013 elections because they became excitable, confident they will win the
elections and took their eyes off the ball - implementing the raft of GPA
democratic reforms to ensure the elections were free, fair and credible. MDC
failed to get even one reform implemented in five years of the GNU.
With not even one
reform implemented Mugabe went on to blatantly rig the elections and the rest
is history.
History has the habit
of repeating itself; Zimbabwe’s opposition; such as they are, a bunch of corrupt
and incompetent riff-ruffs; can nonetheless still go on to win the next
elections if only they could their eyes on the ball this time. We still need to
have the GPA reform implemented. Sadly the opposition is not just corrupt and
incompetent but they are a very easily excitable lot; keeping they eyes on the
ball is proving mission impossible!
“The post-congress Zanu PF is
consumed by its vicious factional and succession wars and the economy is in
free-fall as Cabinet ministers commit themselves more to party business rather
than bread and butter issues,” the very excited Didymus Mutasa told the Daily News.
“If ever there was a time for
Zimbabweans to take them on, it is now.”
Yes it is true that Zanu PF being
torn up in these succession-factional wars on the one hand. Whilst on the country’s
worsening economic situation on the other hand is making the party less and
less electable. Ever since Mugabe failed to get anyone to bankroll his $27
billion ZimAsset recovery plan he has clearly given up on reviving the economy.
Still the opposition would be making a big mistake to assume Zanu PF is out of
the race because of these two events, important as they are.
The opposition should take advantage
of the weakened Zanu PF and the worsening economic situation to demand that the
party accept the implementation of the GPA reforms. A united opposition can
force Mugabe to accept reforms because even he would know that he has only two
hands and they are full right now and therefore it would be most unwise to take
on a third one.
If Mugabe is allowed to go into the
next elections with no reforms implemented again then he will clearly have the
chance of rigging them again.
Some people have argued that Mujuru,
Mutasa and the rest in People First know how Mugabe has rigged elections in the
past and they will stop him doing it again this time. Whilst it is true that
the likes of Mujuru knew Mugabe was rigging elections I bet she does not know
any details.
The ease with which Mujuru and her
supporters were booted out of the party last year shows these were just passengers
on the gravy train whom Mugabe and the small cliché that have ruled the party
and country had allowed to come along for the ride. When the passengers started
to be a nuisance, demanding that they too be allowed to be the train drivers, Mugabe
kicked the lot off the train.
For all their 34 years in power
Mujuru and her supporters have never exercised real political power; they still
do not know whether the train was a coal-fired, diesel, electrical or whatever!
“Zanu was
much more inclined to being ruled by small group at the top and to not permit debate
within its ranks,” said Cephas Msipa in his book In Pursuit of Freedom and Justice: A Memoir. He was right on the
money!
Mugabe and
his small group, the Joint Operation Command (JOC), composed of the top brass
in the Police, Army, CIO, Prison Service, a few others co-opted into the group
headed by Mugabe himself assisted by Mnangagwa. To successful rig the elections
a few more people were brought into the loop to carryout various tasks without
ever be told any details other than the bear minimum to get the job done.
Whilst the
rest of the nation is impoverish with central government so starved of cash the
Minister of Finance is struggling to pay civil servant wages let alone pay for
everything else, JOC is drowning in cash. According to Partnership Africa, Canada,
Mugabe pocketed at least $2 billion from his share of the looting taking place
in Marange in 2012 alone. The other members of JOC are the other holders of the
remaining concessions.
Minister
of Finance during the GNU, Tendai Biti, complained that government was not
getting all the due tax revenue from Marange, he got $400 million instead of
the expected $900 million or so. Since Zanu PF took over complete control again
at the end of the GNU tax revenue into government coffers from Marange have since
completely dried up. Biti accused Mugabe of running a parallel government with
its own source of funds.
“During
the government of national unity in Zimbabwe, Zanu PF beat the MDC to the announcement
by alleging that it was running a parallel government,” wrote Japanese
researcher Ken Yamamoto in his most recent article on Zimbabwe. “The fact of
the matter was that Zanu PF was running a parallel government, on the back of
murky transactions with Sam Pa.
“Pa set up
a Sino-Zimbabwe Development company (Sino-Zim), a joint-venture with Zimbabwe’s
CIO, fronted by Happyton Bonyongwe. One of their key transactions was to buy a
building in downtown Harare along Samora Machel Avenue known as Livingstone
House, formerly owned by Old Mutual. This is where Zimbabwe’s Ministry of ICT
is housed.
“Sino-Zim
dabbled in many operations ranging from cotton to mining to financing parallel
Zanu PF operations in government to buying goodies for the CIO. But most importantly,
Sam Pa bought vehicles for the CIO, funded Zanu PF’s elections including buying
millions of Mugabe-branded giveaways and farming inputs Mugabe dished out ahead
of the 2013 elections. Emmerson Munangagwa, prior to Zimbabwe’s election in
2013, travelled to Angola, and brought back one million dollars in cash to fund
elections contrary state laws, courtesy of China-Sonangol, a Sam Pa creation.” For
the full article see The Zimbabwean, Yamamoto:
Chinese leader’s visit – the dots.
So JOC has plenty of cash, come the elections,
to pay for the usual hired crowds bussed from one rally to the next; to pay for
the bussed multiple voters; to pay NIKUV another $10 million to corrupt the
voters roll; buy all Zanu PF candidate brand new vehicles; etc.
Even if
the electorate should come out with a cast iron determination to vote Zanu PF as
a result of the worsening economic hardship as happened in 2008. Tsvangirai
failed to “win” the presidency then because the ever resourceful Mugabe showed
that even if the opponent has received an overwhelming number of cast votes one
can still win if those tasked to count the votes know what the result must beforehand.
ZEC took
five weeks to count 4 million votes, the finished the actual counting in less
than a day they used the rest of the time “cooking” the result.
The 2008
GPA reforms included ZEC reforms so that the commissioners are independent and
will count the cast votes; reforms to the Police so that they will arrest those
who commit political violence; the funding of all political parties and their
activities are transparent and open to public scrutiny; etc. This is what free,
fair and credible elections is about and that is what the opposition should be
demanding.
Telling the
very excitable Tsvangirai to keep his eyes on implementing the reforms during
the GNU proved to be mission impossible. He has learnt nothing because he just
as excitable this time round. Unless we implement all the 2008 GPA democratic
reforms in full Mugabe and Zanu PF will still “win” the next elections. Mujuru
and her People First team were passengers on the Zanu PF gravy train, the train
did not stop because it “baby dumped” noisy passengers!