Recalling Biti MPs and bye-election will spell the doom of Biti or Tsvangirai but, in a twist of fate, Mugabe may get the soaker punch.

MDC has already said it will evoke the constitutional provision in which a party has the right to recall MPs elected under is colours who then join another political power. Biti had gone to a great deal of trouble to assure the 9 MPs who joined in the rebel group that there was to be no recalls.

 

The Tsvangirai led MDC faction is arguing that the MPs in the rebel camp revolted against the party and there are therefore no longer MDC-T members and therefore they must be recalled.

 

The recall, should it happen, presents Mugabe with headaches:

 

1. It would be tempting for him to steal a few more seats from the opposition; in other words, try to rig the elections. I do not think Mugabe would not want to run that risk. So Zanu PF will field candidates in the bye-elections but they will have to win the vote without State or party machinery coming to their aid.

 

There will Zanu PF party cadres keen as mustard to get back on the gravy train who will run but they will be largely on their own. Mugabe has the majority he needs to do anything he wants already and therefore will not want to risk people asking him again about his failure to hold free, fair and credible elections.

 

2. On the other hand allowing either the Tsvangirai or Biti factions to have a clean sweep is politically as unpalatable to the tyrant as eating saw dust, especially if the latter faction was to take all the seats. An opposition that has just won nine bye-election seats will be more assertive than ever.

 

Mugabe is facing some really serious problems with the worsening economic situation and a resurgent opposition each keen to outdo the other and thus prove they are can take on Mugabe head-on is the last thing the tyrant want.

 

3. Run the bye-elections will cost a few hundred thousand dollars; the regime is stone-broke. The temptation is for Mugabe to go along with Biti’s suggestion that none of the rebels MPs should be considered as having crossed the floor to justify recall and therefore bye elections.

 

It cannot however not be denied that Mugabe has derived a great deal of political pleasure to see Tsvangirai and Biti fighting and tiring each other to bits. The price tag of the bye-elections may therefore be a price Mugabe willingly to pay just to see the two first for a bit longer.

  

4. But by a long mile the greatest worry is hold the bye elections for Mugabe will be what voters roll to use?

 

The regime has stubbornly refused to release the voters roll used in the 2013 elections and for good reason – it is the smoking gun to the blatant vote rigging. Every time someone has asked for it the regime’s representative, be it Registrar General Tobaiwa Mudede of the ZEC chairperson Rita Makarau, have gone several sheds darker. The USA government rubbed salt and hot chills into Mudede’s eyes by splatting him with the targeted sanctions for his role in withholding the voters roll.

 

The official position is that the computer holding the voters roll data broke down and thus the voters roll, hard copy or electronic, was not available. The regime will now have to get the said computer repaired quick-smart because there cannot be bye-elections in nine constituencies without a voters roll.

 

Now everyone knows the voters roll was the smoking gun in the rigged 2013 elections the regime knows the roll is produces for the bye elections will only wet its critics’ appetite. They will be asking why the regime had failed to produce the complete voters roll all along with renewed vigour. They will scrutinize the bye-elections rolls for any changes from those used in the July 2013 elections; for the regime to reproduce the rolls with all the deliberate Nikuv engineered modifications will be to commit political suicide.

 

Those who follow the trial and tribulations of sport will know the nail-baiting tension of the last game deciding whether you team wins or drops out British Barclays Premiership or the Spanish Leliga or American Basketball NBA or wins World Cup Football Final for the first time ever. Every time the ball is the opposition end your hopes soar into the stratosphere only to sink to unknown depths it is the other end.

For the three main protagonists in Zimbabwean politics the bye-elections will have all the nail-baiting tension of sport except that here the game has already kick-off and it could be months before the final whistle. The stakes could not be any higher; their political careers are at stake.

 

Tsvangirai, as the person who insisted on the MPs being recalled, he will need to win at least two or three of the seats or his credibility will sink even more.

 

Tendai Biti will have gained nothing if he won back all of the seats since they are all from his camp. But leasing even one or two will hurt. If he was to lose more than half then his name is mud.

 

As for Mugabe, he is getting in the ring to make sure the two knock each other out and just in case this does not happen, he will be on hand to sneak in the knockout punch himself. But in a Shakespearian twist of fate, it is him who may end up getting the soaker punch as a wild swing from one candidate misses the intended victim and lands on him!

 

The threat of the bye-elections uncovering the truth about how Mugabe rigged the 2013 elections is real. The political consequences of such a discovery are simply unthinkable for Mugabe and Zanu PF.

 

In a game in which Mugabe did nothing to lose and did not even have to play he ends up the one drawing the bad card! 

 

Excellent end! I will be playing “(Draw) Bad Card” by Bob Marley for years in celebration!