“Test! Test! Test”! The World Health Organisation (WHO) has
advised all nations ever since it became clear that the corona virus was very contagious
and was spreading. WHO declared covid-19 a pandemic 12 March 2020. Sadly,
nearly a month later since the declaration and with 9 confirmed corona virus
cases in the country Zimbabwe still continues to drag her feet on testing.
“In terms of testing there is equipment at the National
University of Science and Technology and at Mpilo Hospital. We are in the
process of combining these so we can do the testing here locally. I understand
in Bulawayo we currently have the rapid testing equipment but it is not
complete, so they have not started testing, therefore testing is at the moment
only being done in Harare where samples from all corners of the country are
sent,” said the Minister of Local Government and Public Works, July Moyo at a
Press conference in Bulawayo.
As of today 5th April 2020, Zimbabwe has 9 confirm
corona virus cases one of whom has since died. One would be tempted to take
comfort in the small number but they will be wrong. The country has only carried
out 316 test which is a drop in a bucketful!
One infected person can meet 5 people in their normal day
interaction to whom they could potential infect with the virus. The following
day the infected person plus the 5 infected the day before could infect 5 more
people each. By the end of the week, 7th day, there will be
potential 6 times 6 repeated seven times or 6^7 = 279 936.
In other words after a week, each confirmed corona virus case
may have infected 279 936 others who must now be traced and tested. We have 9
confirmed corona virus patients and each has had more one week to infect others
and we have only done 316 tests in total! This is a sick joke!
There should be fully equipped and staffed test facilities in each
of the country’s 10 provinces capable of doing 100 test a day at least.
Zimbabwe’s public health service has all but collapsed; there a
chronic shortage of doctors and nurses, even big hospitals like Parerenyatwa
regularly run out of even the most basic medicine like pain killers and even
clean running water. It is naïve to even talking of mobilizing such a crippled health
care service to deal with corona virus patients. Of what value will a 50 or
even 500 bed corona virus hospital be if the number of people requiring
hospital treatment can soar to 50 plus a day in the first week of the outbreak.
And the demand for beds then grows exponential for the next three or four
months!
Zimbabwe’s ill-resourced health care service will be completely overwhelmed
within days of the virus outbreak. The country’s only fighting chance to
contain the virus is by getting ahead of the curve – stop the outbreak
happening. By instituting a very aggressive testing program, the nation will
detect and isolate the infected person before they have time to spread the
virus.
We should not forget that Zimbabwe is in this economic and
political mess because of 40 years of gross mismanagement, rampant corruption
and tyrannical rule by Zanu PF. The people have failed to remove the party from
office all these years because Mnangagwa and company rigged the elections.
The biggest mistake the people of Zimbabwe have ever made was to
allow Zanu PF to get away with rigged elections again and again. And, by Jove,
we have paid dearly for that folly.
40 years of Zanu PF misrule have destroyed Zimbabwe’s once
prosperous economy and 34% of the population now live in extreme poverty. Zanu
PF has ridden roughshod over the people, denying them their freedoms and basic
rights. Corona virus is pushing the price we are paying for decades of bad
governance to new dizzying heights.
Corona virus has wreaked havoc in those countries with well-resourced
health services and most important of responsive, competent, accountable and
stable government. Still, as many as 1% of these country’s population will die
from corona virus and the country will slide into deep depression forcing 5% to
live in abject poverty.
Zimbabwe’s collapsed health service will mean many more lives
will be lost; as many as 10% of the population or 1.5 million will die. The
economy, in ruins already before the virus outbreak, will sink into even deeper
trouble. The number living in abject poverty will double from 34% to 68%!
The price of buying the test kits and carrying out 1 000 test
per day for the next three months will be a fraction of the price the nation
will pay in human suffering, lost lives and the economic cost in one day should
there be a fully fledged corona virus outbreak. It is not too late to start an
aggressive test program.
2 comments:
Of all the foolish things to be fighting over and the timing could not be worse for Zimbabwe, in the middle of the existential covid-19 threat!
Villagers from Buvuma area of Gwanda South have reported that three people have died in the area allegedly due to malaria, according to a local health centre.
Terrified villagers who spoke to ZimEye.com in confidence indicated that the three people were part of eight people in the area who have exhibited rare signs of a malaria infection leaving them believing that the deaths could have been Coronavirus cases.
The best advice for Zimbabweans is to assume that everyone who dies from now on died of covid-19 unless he/she was tested and found to be negative. People must remember that someone who dies of corona virus is high contagious and hence the reason why no one with no PPE is allowed to visit a sick person even on their deathbed and the dead are cremated within 24 hours if possible with not relatives present.
The real tragedy is Zanu PF is not carrying out the tests; carried out only 316 tests as of 30 March 2020, a drop in the ocean. The real tragedy here is by failing to test many more people are going to be infected and so many more people will die!
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