One more person has tested positive of corona virus bringing the total in Zimbabwe to 9. Here is the summary:
30 March Cumulative number of
test 316
Negative 307
Positive 9
Death 1
Zimbabwe’s only hope of avoiding the high numbers of infected requiring hospital treatment and the deaths as seen in many other countries is for the country to adopt a very aggressive test and trace strategy - even more aggressive than that of South Korea. Zimbabwe does not have the economic muscle and its health care service has all but collapse; the country will struggle to deal with 10 hospitalized corona virus patients a month much less the 100 plus a day should the outbreak happen!
What would constitute aggressive testing and tracing?
Data from China and other countries shows that a corona virus infected person can infect two others every day. At the
end of the first day there will be 3 people with the virus included the first
person. End of the second day there will be 3x3 = 9. End of third day 3x3x3 =
27. By the end of the week, 7 days 3^7 = 2 187.
On average person will come into close contact with 5 people every day (infecting 2 out
the 5 as above) End of first day there will be 6 (including the infected
person) to trace. End of day two 6x6 = 36 and so on with end of the week 6^7 = 279 936!
So if
one corona virus infected person, just one, slips into the country and roams freely for just one week over 250 000 individuals must be traced and tested. 9 different individuals have slip through and each has had a week to spread the virus and so we should have traced and tested over 2 million. Yet so far the country has traced and tested only 316 people or 0.014%!
South Korea prioritized identifying and isolating people testing positive for the
disease, and developed capacity to run about 15,000 diagnostic tests a day. It
has conducted more than 300,000 tests to date, free of charge, including in
drive-through testing booths since replicated elsewhere.
So far, only the late Zororo Makamba required specialized hospital treatment, which he did not get because the was none. The government's repeated assurance that Wilkins Hospital was ready to take corona virus patients was a lie. Many corona virus patients will suffer and die because Zimbabwe will not have the specialist care they need.
It is all very well to have a lockdown but without data from test to monitor how the virus is spreading; the lockdown may well be counter productive. Many people traveled from urban, for all we know spreading the virus from epicenters, to their rural home.
Zimbabwe must step up the testing and tracing, to 1 000 plus day. by now. It is the only effective tool the country has to mitigate the devastating consequence of the corona virus we know is spreading like wild fire in our midst!
7 comments:
@ Mechavio
“Wilbert, be a realist. The number of tests done are directly proportional to the resources at our disposal. Even the WHO appreciate our modesty efforts. Has your country of refuge tested as many people as they wish to?”
I am a realist and you, of all people know it. The pathetic number of test done is more a measure of a regime that is incompetent and does not care about the horrific suffering and deaths of the ordinary people, never did, than of the “resources at our disposal”.
This is a regime whose thugs have squandered billions of dollars building palatial mansions like the Blue Roof, buying posh cars, bankrolling sprawling but wasteful business empires and on extravagant lifestyles whilst key public institutions like hospitals were allowed to rot and decay. The nation has the resources alright, it is just that they are being wasted – which is not the same thing!
Zimbabwe’s economy is in ruins and the health service has all but collapse a long time ago and so it will not build, equip and staff new 1000-bed hospitals for corona virus patients as other nations have done. If the regime had an competent leaders they would know that the country’s only hope of reducing the suffering and deaths to follow is by testing and tracing. If they knew that then they would throw all the resources to make sure they get as many test kits as they can.
I refuse to accept that getting test-kits to do 316 tests in 3 months when we should be doing 1 000 test a day is good enough! What China is looting from Zimbabwe in Marange and Chiadzwa diamonds in one month is enough to pay for 20 million test kits! After decades of being robbed blind by these Chinese it will be refreshing for Zimbabwe to get their diamonds’ worth for a change!
Kasukuwere outlines measures to combat the CoronaVirus in Zimbabwe & the SADC region
Well one suggestion would be for all those who have rob Zimbabwe blind building bullet-proof palatial mansions, fleet of posh cars and are living in foreign lands off millions of dollars of cash and other asset must be forced to return all the looted wealth. I bet the money raised will be enough to build, equip and staff several 1000-bed corona hospitals with plenty of cash left over to help kick start Zimbabwe's comatose economy!
Indeed, these palatial mansions will make excellent "private" hospitals for corona virus patients. There must be at least 100 such mansions in Harare and Bulawayo alone and add to that those in the rural areas. All we will need is the specialist equipment, medicine patients and staff; beds, key to the safe and the rest are there already or can be sourced and paid for the sale of designer shoes, etc.!
Yeah, Kasukuwere, for once in your life, put your money where your mouth is! Give back what you looted from the people and help save lives - not destroy them!
@ Justice Ginya
“Wilbert Mukori didn’t know dat u are a politician only discovered it after reading your reply to Malarais. Put politics aside papa”
If asking these corrupt, incompetent and tyrannical Zanu PF thugs to get off their backsides and do something to alleviate the suffering and deaths covid-19 is causing is politics then I am a politician.
Indeed, I would argue you and millions of other Zimbabweans to get off your backsides too and for once hold this Zanu PF regime to account. In these desperate days, making sure we have a competent government is not just an advantage it is now a matter of life and death.
Zimbabwe is in this economic and political mess because Zanu PF destroyed the country’s democratic institutions and ruined the economy. And we, Zimbabweans, let them do as they pleased because we did not want to be involved in politics. Well we have paid dearly for our foolishness. The price for our navel gazing tomfoolery has just gone up – covid-19 is here and it is going to cause untold suffering and death!
“Leave politics!” Yeah right! And join the navel gazing brigade like you! Well with no tests, a collapsed health service, not even clean running water in hospitals, etc. covid-19 will spread like a wildfire and many of the navel gazing brigade suffer and many will die!
The rand hit a new all-time low on Friday, breaching the R19/$ mark as rating agency Fitch downgraded the country's credit rating.
Fitch on Friday downgraded South Africa's long term foreign currency debt from BB+ to BB with a negative outlook. This was attributed to a "lack of a clear path towards government debt stabilisation."
"The negative outlook reflects the prospect of further significant upside pressure on government debt and additional downside risks associated with the global shock," Fitch said.
The rand, which is slowly approaching the R20/$ mark, weakened nearly 3% on Friday to a low of R19.03 against the greenback.
As a Zimbabwean, I must say I had great expectation of President Cyril Ramaphosa but was disappointed when he told the world in Davos Switzerland that “Zimbabwe 2018 elections went well”. He want one step further and claimed that sanctions were the root cause of Zimbabwe’s economic meltdown and they should be lifted.
We all make mistakes but this the kind of stupidity one would expect from a village idiot and not a national leader!
It is therefore not surprise to hear that under President Ramaphosa SA has no “clear path towards government debt stabilisation." The country has been latching from one crisis to the next!
It will be a great tragedy if SA should follow the same path of economic failure and ruin Zimbabwe and many other African countries have taken. Fitch’s credit rating of Zimbabwe is “junk”. SA had such a promising start with the iconic Nelson Mandela!
Letters of hope, Covid-19!
by Eric Shikobela
"Hope is a mystery that foresees the beauty and the victory of the future. It is hope that testifies in our hearts that our nation will overcome this deadly virus. Our blessed and beautiful nation has been through a lot of challenges and difficulties. And we overcame them all, and we keep on overcoming because we are the children of the soil. The soil that strengthen our feet to stand firm in all circumstances. This deadly virus will soon be added to our records of victories. Our struggle continues, but our victory is assured. Losing is not in our dictionary, we can't spell it, we can't pronounce it."
I am inspired to write at least 19 inspirational poems. And I will name them "letters of hope, covid-19." The letters will concentrate on health, economical, family, leadership and faith issues. And I will sell per copy for R19. The copy will be send electronically. The donor will have an opportunity to choose between the 1st and the 19th letters. We can just call it favorite number option. A donor can even collect all the letters. The mission is to have 1 million buyers of this letters. If 1 million people donate R19 for a copy of a letter of hope, then I'll be able to raise R19 million rands. The vision is to assist the poor of the poorest to start something that will put bread on the table. Because the inflation will affect them more than anyone, after the Covid-19 battle. I quote Mahatma Gandhi; "Be the change you wish to see in the world."
Corona virus is spreading like a wildfire in SA, Zimbabwe and many, many other Africa countries. Clearly hope alone was not enough to stop it taking root and trust me, hope alone is not going to stop the suffering and dying that has already started and is certain to get worse.
Many African countries are in an economic mess because of the chronic pandemic of corruption and mismanagement that have become a byword of Africa. In Zimbabwe the country’s economic is in total meltdown, its basic services such as health care have long collapsed and the country cannot even supply clean running water in hospitals.
The only hope of stopping corona virus causing untold suffering and deaths in Africa is for the continent to stop the virus taking root by testing and tracing all suspected corona virus cases very, very aggressively. By now countries like Zimbabwe should be testing at least 1 000 a day and yet the country has only done 316 in the last three months!
Some African countries has imposed lockdown but without testing they have no clue how the virus is spreading; they are just shooting in the dark. Indeed, the ill-advised lockdown may well have made a bad situation worse because many people from urban centres, the epicentres of the virus, have travelled to their rural homes.
“This deadly virus will soon be added to our records of victories!” This is just wishful thinking of the navel gazing brigade who have done nothing to end the curse of bad governance and thus condemned Africa to the dark ages. Unless Africa snap out of this sloth-like slumber the months and years ahead are going to be the darkest ever. Of all the other continents, Africa will pay the highest price in lost treasure and lost human lives to corona virus. How anyone with even half a brain can ever consider that a victory beggars belief!
President Emmerson Mnangagwa on Friday ordered police to allow farmers to deliver their produce to markets in urban centres after shocking pictures emerged of police burning a truckload of vegetables in Mutare.
Police have been accused of misinterpreting regulations issued in support of a 21-day lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus by taking draconian measures, including arresting shoppers, banning the sale of liquor and stopping farmers from travelling to cities and towns with their fresh farm produce.
This is what comes out of an ill-advised lockdown made worse by the failure to communicate. The Police did not only stop the sale of the vegetables but the actually thought the cabbages had the virus and hence the reason for burning the vegetables!
There is evidence to suggest the corona virus is not spreading as quickly as in other countries; the high summer temperature are not favourable to the virus. So instead of an infected person passing the virus to two others a day he is infecting two a week, for example. So the number of infectious people is growing but ever so slowly. As the winter approach the virus will spread more readily and the numbers will start to soar.
During this period of slow spread a lockdown will have very little effect. The resources wasted during the lockdown would have been put to better use buying the test kits and carrying out the tests!
But the MDC deputy secretary-general Jameson Timba said there was no reason why Chamisa should comment on the latest ruling as it did not concern him and had nothing to do with their party.
"Why should he say anything about something that doesn't concern him? The only people who should be talking about it are Thokozani Khupe and Morgen Komichi together with their planner Douglas Mwonzora," Timba said
There is no one out there, not even Jameson Timba or any of the hard core Chamisa supporters who cross their heart and swear the process leading to Chamisa’s takeover in 2018 was in accordance with the MDC’s own constitution. Chamisa shoot himself in the foot by flouting the party’s constitution, the Court judgement confirms that, and now it is pay back time.
Chamisa and his followers can try to ignore the judgement but that will not make it go away. The MDC A is going nowhere until this matter is dealt with!
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