I am an Electrical Engineer and love to reduce the problem before, if I can, into an equation. It helps me focus and so please bear with me.
Comrade Blessed Geza has called on Zimbabweans to come out in huge numbers, at Growth Points, Towns and Cities in Zimbabwe and beyond, and demand that President Emmerson Mnangagwa must resign because he is corrupt, incompetent, tyrannical, illegitimate (he rigged the 2023 elections) and a litany of other treasonous charges making him unfit to hold the office of President of the Republic of Zimbabwe. The protest, “uprising”, as Geza calls it, is set for Monday 31 March 2025.
These are the equations one can write:
P = p(p) + p(not-p) (1)
where P = total population, p(p) are population participate and p(not-p) are those who will not participate in the uprising.
p(p-not) = p(not-pM) + p(not-p, not-M) (2)
where p(not-pM) are Mnangagwa supporters who will not participate for obvious reasons and p(not-p, not-M) are not Mnangagwa supporters who will not participate for various reasons including fear there will be the usual wanton violence between protestors and the regime’s operatives and/or the fear the uprising will accomplish nothing as it only seeks to replace Mnangagwa with Chiwenga, as dd the 2017 coup that replaced Mugabe with Mnangagwa.
p(p) = p(pC) + p(p, not-C) (3)
where p(pC) are Chiwenga supporters who are as keen as mustard to see the change of guard, they believe it is their turn to rule, “chinhu chedu” as Geza bluntly put it. p(p, not-C) are not Chiwenga supporters who see participating as the only way to end the Mnangagwa dictatorship.
The success or otherwise of the uprising will dependent on the size of the crowd who participate in the protest, p(p) in equations (1) and (3) above. And how long the resolve of protestors if the protest should be a long drawn out affair.
I believe the the country’s worsen economic situation would have kept the protestors going - if the people believed the uprising would bring about meaningful change. Many are not convinced of that and for good reasons.
I have engaged many of the people who are not Chiwenga supporters but are nonetheless participating in the uprising, the p(p, not C) in equation (3) above. Their reasons for participating boil down to two:
- a) they view the success of the uprising as the only way to stop Mnangagwa mutilating the constitution to extend his stay in office beyond the stipulated maximum two term limit which is set to end in 2028.
- b) whilst they accept the fear that the uprising will deliver no democratic changes and happened with the 2017 military coup for the obvious reason that the uprising seeks to replace one dictator with another with our dealing with the root cause - dismantling the dictatorship itself. “Still, we hope that Chiwenga will not be corrupt and tyrannical as Mnangagwa, at least not as bad as Mnangagwa!” they argue.
Both these reasons have one common thread - ignorance.
These people do not know that Mnangagwa’s ambition to stay in power beyond 2028 can still be stopped even if the uprising is a complete flop. Mnangagwa will need to hold a referendum to approve the amendment to the constitution to postpone the 2028 elections or else contest in the 2028 elections.
It is within the people’s power to make sure he does not rig the referendum/elections and get away with it, as has happened countless times. If he implemented the democratic reforms, Mnangagwa will never win the referendum/elections.
The fact that many Zimbabweans out there have no clue they have been participating in flawed elections “so flawed, so illegal, that the only logical step was to withdraw,” as David Coltart aptly put it; to give vote rigging Zanu PF legitimacy and perpetuate their own suffering; speaks volumes of the sicken depth of ignorance in Zimbabwe.
Indeed, the more people who participate in this uprising that we all know only seeks to replace Mnangagwa; yes, a corrupt and vote rigging tyrant; with Chiwenga; just another corrupt, military coup leader and vote rigging Zanu PF tyrant.
The ancient Greeks, 2 500 years ago, were right; democracy - government of the peoples, for the people and by the people - only works if the people are educated, knowledgeable, objective and are diligent in the duty of holding those in power to democratic account. The Zimbabwe electorate have none of these qualities.
“We hope that Chiwenga will not be corrupt and tyrannical as Mnangagwa, at least not as bad as Mnangagwa!” How naive, ignorant and gullible can you be! This is hoping against reason because you know Chiwenga is just as corrupt and incompetent. And even if he was an unknown factor, the dictatorship itself will force him/her to be corrupt and tyrannical.
No Zimbabwean, with half a working brain, would participate in the Geza uprising to give the Chiwenga Zanu PF dictatorship legitimacy and perpetuate the nation’s suffering, especially now with the benefit of the disastrous betrayal by 2017 military coup plotters fresh in our minds!!
14 comments:
@ Ncube
So you do not mind if Chiwenga turns out to be as corrupt and tyrannical as long as he does not stay in power beyond the ten year limit! So you would have been pleased with Mnangagwa if he had not threatened to stay beyond 2028!
No wonder we are a failed state, we really have no clue what it takes to be a healthy and functioning democracy.
Well this is not the first time that Mnangagwa has dismissed his critic as barking dogs. Well this is the first time he has used this language talking to the man sitting next to him.
We really need to deal with the problem of bad governance by dismantling the de facto one party dictatorship once and once for all.
The Geza revolution only seeks to replace one dictator with another just as the 2017 military coup did. Nothing change as we know because the dictatorship remain in place. We should not be foolish to repeat the same mistake!
The most important point here is that it was Chiwenga and his fellow war veterans who imposed Mnangagwa on the nation just as they imposed Mugabe before him. And now the same idiots want to impose yet another dictator and we are supposed to cheer and applaud!
Of course, Chiwenga is just another corrupt and incompetent Zanu PF thug and it is naive to expect change from him.
The problem here is that we have a rotten political system that has allowed buffoons to get into positions of power and authority. Until we dismantle the de facto one party dictatorship the nation is going nowhere. Swapping one dictator for another is just a waste of time as we saw post the 2017 military coup.
Those who will not learn from the past are destined to repeat the same foolish mistakes over and over again. Are we really that stupid we cannot see the reason why Zimbabwe is a failed state is because we have buffoons in power and the nation has been stuck with them for 45 years because they rig elections!
https://www.facebook.com/4415858595176450/videos/1617594288920291
Geza names 35 individuals including Mnangagwa himself to be targeted by the 31 March uprising. So General Sibusiso Moyo's 2017 list of "criminals surrounding President Mugabe" was wrong!
Who had elected and imposed the individuals on both of these lists on the nation? It was not the people but the war veterans, Geza and company!
This Geza list is not the definitive and conclusive list of all those who are corrupt and tyrannical. Geza, Chiwenga and many others are just as corrupt and tyrannical as the 35 and yet are not on the list. This is just a musical chairs game to decide which Zanu PF thugs should rule the country next.
Why any one should be conned to believe the 31 March uprising will change anything beggars belief. Zimbabweans must be smart enough to know they are being called upon to participate to give the dictatorship legitimacy and perpetuate their own suffering!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=widpagO-jHw
Once upon a time, Anselem Nhamo "Muchida Musingadi" Sanyatwe announced that Zanu PF "ichatonga kuzvika madhoki amera nyanga. Muchida! Musingadi!" A treasonous statement especially coming from a senior Army Officer whose oath of office demands that he is apolitical. He was serving his Zanu PF political masters damn the people!
Well what goes round comes round. The ongoing Zanu PF
factional war has Mnangagwa and Sanyatwe in two opposing camps and the later has found himself stripped of his military position and power, Achida! Asingadi! He is now eating humble pie. Let this be a lesson to all!
@ Mr Mboma
“@Wilbert Mukori You are a very respectable man, but sometimes you devalue yourself by not applying critical thinking in your judgments. People were tired of R.G.M, so it was healthy to sanitize the coup. If people join hands today, it's a clear message that will be sent to the VP, what kills the lion (murambwi) will also kill the baboon (gudoguru).
So, the idea here is not just about opposing, but being strategic and joining hands. There's a little window for progress. I never wanted to be negative until today. I suspect you work for the cabal. The way you oppose without offering a solution to the problem makes me conclude that, you're on a mission to discourage the masses and give the dictator legitimacy. The world will think people didn't go on demo because they love the president, as the persuaders say.”
Supporting the 2017 coup did not bring about any change because the dictatorship was not touched, this uprising is seeking to do the same thing. There warning that nothing would change were there for all to see in 2017 - Mnangagwa was a seasoned thug who had kept Mugabe in power for the last 37 years. He had fallen out with Mugabe over power and not over ideology, bad governance or any substantive matter.
Sibusiso Moyo, the coup spokesperson had talked about criminals around Mugabe; this was just a smokescreen. The 2017 military coup was about power, “Operation restore legacy”, as the coup plotters budded it. Mugabe and G40 were trying to elbow Mnangagwa and most of his Lacoste cronies out of office; the coup stopped it.
Mnangagwa conned the opposition and their supporters to support the coup, promising to end corruption and to implement democratic reforms. None of the promise were kept. None!
Mnangagwa was never going to implement and democratic reforms and risk losing power especially when he was not under any pressure to do so. Chiwenga too is not under any pressure to implement reforms and so none will be implemented.
The 31 March uprising is seeking to replace Mnangagwa with Chiwenga; 2017 coup is repeating itself!
It is not surprising there are some people who are refusing to see this reality given they have been participating in flawed elections expecting the opposition to win RIGGED elections these last 45 years!
No wonder we are failed state, we have some of the mentally challenged people on earth, millions of them!
@ Tich Academia General
"Chihwenga kubva pakaita coup 2017 hating kumbonzwa nezveCorruption futi. He is a disciplined cadre. A decorated soldier of repute. Saka zvaurikutaura."
Who was talking of crashing opposition like lice a few moons ago? So you think Chiwenga will implement democratic reforms to ensure future elections are free and fair? How is it possible that any one can be so shallow, thick and slow!
Mnangagwa offering MPs US$ 120 000 bribe to amending constitution to postpone elections to 2030.
This would not be the first time Mnangagwa has bribed people to do his bidding nor would it be the last as lomg as he is in a position to do so.
@ Team Mukanya
Zimbabwe will remain a failed and pariah state as long as the country remains a one party state - this is what you have failed to get into your thick head. We need to dismantle the dictatorship and stop wasting time swapping one dictator for another.
Chiwenga has played his part in creating the dictatorship and has collected his share of the looted wealth. Chiwenga is just as corrupt, incompetent and tyrannical as the other Zanu PF thugs. Not many moons ago he was talking of crashing opposition leaders like lice. He is the one who have the 2017 military coup order.
Stop talking nonsense! Do you really believe Chiwenga will implement the democratic reforms and hold free and fair elections? All those who participate in the 31 March uprising must know they are once again being conned to give Zanu PF legitimacy and perpetuate the nation’s suffering. Sadly, this is nothing new!
It is not surprising there are some people who are refusing to see this reality given they have been participating in flawed elections expecting the opposition to win RIGGED elections these last 45 years!
No wonder we are failed state, we have some of the mentally challenged people on earth, millions of them!
https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1gqxvjWQDvRxB
Brett is right, the 31 March uprising is about the Zanu PF thugs fighting each other over the loot, there is not enough to go round. He is also right that Geza's call has won traction with the people because there is no effective opposition and the people are desperate. They are so desperate for change they have been conned to believe Geza & Co. will deliver change.
Chiwenga is just as corrupt, incompetent and tyrannical as any other Zanu PF thug; where Geza left him from the list of corrupt leaders is obvious. The Geza list is corrupt Mnangagwa supporters only!
Chiwenga will never stamp out corruption nor hold free and fair elections the Zanu PF Mafiosi will never allow him to dismantle the dictatorship.
There is no excuse for any ordinary Zimbabwean to participate in the 31 March uprising because it will only give Chiwenga faction legitimacy and perpetuate the nation's suffering!
@ Papa Paul
"Iwe usiri mentally challenged wadii wauya wagadzira nyika."
So only those on the ground can contribute in changing Zimbabwe? Pointing out where the people and leaders have gone wrong is just as important and that people can do from anywhere, especially in this day and age!
Your beef with me is that I have dared to hold Nelson Chamisa to account. To you he is a demigod who should never be questioned much less called a liar.
He lied about plugging vote rigging loop holes to con people to participate in the flawed elections to give vote rigging Zanu PF legitimacy and thus perpetuating the nation's suffering. Of course, he must be held to account and that is NOT negotiable.
https://bulawayo24.com/index-id-news-sc-national-byo-251568.html
"We let you down. We assaulted opposition (including povo) under fog of war," confessed Geza. What war? The post independence Zanu PF harassments, beatings and cold blooded murders of over 40 000 Zimbabweans and counting were all for the purpose of imposing the de facto one party, Zanu PF, dictatorship so the party leaders can gratify their insatiable hunger for power and looted wealth!
Zanu PF has kept the rural people poor denying them title deed to even ten square metres of land on which their mud huts are build for selfish political reasons! Even if the 31 March uprising was successful rural povo will NOT get title deeds! The War veterans, village heads and chiefs, the dictators' rural area proxies, will not allow it!
@ Mr Max
If you have understood that participating in the 31 March uprising will bring about no meaningful change but will give the Chiwenga faction legitimacy, just as the 2017 coup brought no change and gave Mnangagwa legitimacy, then you would KNOW that staying home is the rational option than participating!
Of course I am not surprised that you are itching to participate, just as you and millions of others participated in the flawed elections even after you were warn doing so would give Zanu PF legitimacy.
“The (2013) electoral process was so flawed, so illegal, that the only logical step was to withdraw, which would compel SADC to hold Zanu PF to account. But such was the distrust between the MDC-T and MDC-N that neither could withdraw for fear that the other would remain in the elections, winning seats and giving the process credibility,” confessed David Coltart in his Book, The Struggle Continues 50 years of Tyranny in Zimbabwe.
Rational thinking has never been your and the millions’ forte, the opposite. Indeed, one can trust you to be irrational again and again. You were very foolish to support the 2017 military coup and now you are hell bent on repeating the same thing by supporting the 31 March uprising to perpetuate the Zanu PF dictatorship!
Zimbabwe is a failed state because we have millions of Zimbabweans who keep doing the same stupid mistakes over and over again. “Hupenzi inyama yegakava!” as my late mother would say.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__H4P2e2Hmg
There are reports of Mnangagwa loyalists' cars being firebombed. It this the action Blessed Runesu "Bombshell" Geza was talking about. This brings to the fore three key points:
1) Forget about the 31 March protest being peaceful, this is going to be a violent confrontation.
2) Zimbabwe has always had a political culture of violence. The nation failed to remove Mugabe through the ballot, it took the 2017 military coup to remove him. Are we saying we cannot remove Mnangagwa without resort to violence too?
3) Zimbabwe is a failed state precisely because we have failed to deal with the curse of culture of violence that Zanu PF ruling elite and war veterans fostered on the nation. Supporting the 2017 coup did not end the culture but rather gave it legitimacy; we will be very foolish indeed if we repeated the same mistake by supporting this Geza violent uprising. We want a Zimbabwe in which all Zimbabweans have a meaningful say in the governance of the country and not just those with the ability to cause violence!
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