Wednesday, 22 November 2017

There are 3 reasons Mnangagwa would want GNU and they are all for selfish gain N Garikai

There is a growing chorus of people supporting the idea of Zanu PF inviting the opposition to form another GNU or National Transition Authority.

“ACADEMIC and political analyst Ibbo Mandaza says that a transitional government in the form of a government of national unity (GNU), followed by elections two years later is the way to go in resolving Zimbabwe’s political crisis,” reported Newsday.

“Speaking on a BBC television programme, Hardtalk hosted by Stephen Sackur, Mandaza said there was need to mediate the conflict and have national dialogue which includes everybody, including main opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai to form a transitional authority.”

Whilst there is good reason for some mechanism, be it mark-2 GNU, NTA or whatever, to implement the democratic reforms designed to dismantle the Zanu PF dictatorship and deliver free and fair elections. Only a fool who expect Zanu PF to preside over the process and get the job done.

People must not be fooled; whatever GNU Mnangagwa may come up with it will not be there to implement the democratic reforms the nation has been dying for.

Zanu PF rigged the July 2013 elections to get a very comfortable two thirds majority in both parliament and senate. The party has since won all but one of the by-elections since to boost its majority even further. Tsvangirai, out of spite and his usual foolishness, recalled all the seats from the break-away Tendai Biti group knowing fully well he was not going to even try to win the seats back in the by-election because his party had passed the “No reform, no election!” resolution.

So, with a 75% plus majority in both houses, Mnangagwa does not need to invite an opposition members in his government. There can only be three reasons why would want a GNU, they are all for selfish gain:

1)     Mnangagwa, like Mugabe before, has always wanted a one-party dictatorship. When Zanu PF was forced to sign-on to the multi-party Lancaster House Constitution in 1979 they party set about to create a de facto one-party State. The principle purpose of all the Gukurahundi massacre was to completely destroy PF Zapu, their main rivalry at the time, clear the deck, and impose the one-party state. Mnangagwa played a central role in the massacre, because he, no doubt, subscribed to its principle objective.

Mugabe failed to achieve his Gukurahundi objective, wipe PF Zapu off the Zimbabwe political stage, but achieved the next best thing – whip the party into joining Zanu PF to form the de facto one-party state we have today.

Mugabe has ruthless denied the political space to all other opposition parties accusing all opposition politicians of being puppets of the West hell-bend on disrupting the peace and unity with their regime-change agenda.

No doubt, Mnangagwa will argue that he is inviting the opposition to join his government in the name of national unity – the political correct euphemism for one-party dictatorship, brought in by the back door.

Tsvangirai, Ncube and many others in the opposition camp will jump sky-high at the opportunity to get back on the grave train. Tsvangirai was no more than a tea-boy with the fancy post of Prime Minister during the 2008 to 2013 GNU. With no SADC leaders agenda to worry about as last time, Mnangagwa can afford to completely ignore the window-dressing opposition.

A healthy and functional democracy needs a robust opposition to hold the government to account, something the corrupt and incompetent MDC politicians have failed to do. Their being co-opted into Zanu PF government will silence them completely.

2)      Mnangagwa knows that for him to stand a chance of winning the next elections he will need a lot more than the 8 months left of the present parliamentary term. He wants to use the creation of this fictitious government of national unity as an excuse for postponing next year’s elections which must be held by the end of July 2018 at the latest. He would want to argue that the new administration has had to agree on the democratic reforms needed to take the country forward.

Mnangagwa knows that there no democratic constitution in the world that would allow the seating government to postpone elections because it makes a mockery of fixed term parliament. So, for him to pull this off he is playing the same dirty trick Mugabe played during the GNU – bribe the opposition, pamper them silly with the trapping of power, to buy their silence.

3)     If Mnangagwa cannot postpone the elections then he will have no choice but to rig the elections to hang on to his post as president. He and his Zanu PF colleagues cannot afford the luxury of holding free and fair elections and risk defeat. They cannot contemplate defeat because they will stand to lose a lot more than the right to hold public office; they will lose the power to stop the world investigating their past. For the last 37 years Mugabe, Mnangagwa and the rest of the Zanu PF cabal have looted the nation blind and committed some shocking human right violations.

Even at the height of the Zanu PF factional wars, the one thing the Mujuru, Mnangagwa and G40 factional members all agreed on was that a Zanu PF faction must retain power at all cost and that is why no faction has ever supported the implementation of democratic reforms.

The Mujuru faction was booted out of the party three years ago and it has paid lip-service to democratic reforms and free and fair election. She and her newly formed People’s Rainbow Coalition would rather take their chance and contest flawed elections next year than demand reforms to ensure free and fair elections which could result in a democratic government. She has as much to fear from such a government as Mnangagwa and the rest in Zanu PF because she too is guilty of the wholesale looting during for 34 years in Zanu PF.

So, Mnangagwa would be inviting the opposition to join him in his new administration to reassure them that they too will have a share of the spoils of power in post Mugabe Zimbabwe. He wants as many opposition parties to take part in next year’s elections even if they know Zanu PF will rig the vote to stay in power. He wants them to be assured the party will allow the opposition some generous scraps.

Morgan Tsvangirai and his MDC friends had more than the balance of power in the 2008 to 2013 GNU, MDC had a numeric majority in parliament and cabinet.  They also had a clearly defined task to do, implementing the raft of democratic reforms. Yet, after five years, they still failed to get even one democratic reform implemented. Only the politically na├»ve would believe that the opposition will accomplish anything by joining a Mnangagwa led government of national unity in which they will not even be elected MP and with a vaguely defined task of implementing electoral reforms.

Morgan Tsvangirai and his MDC friends sold-out big time during the 2008 to 2013 GNU they will be joining the Mnangagwa mark-2 GNU for no other reason than to sell-out again!

We need the democratic reforms implemented, there is no question that this is the nation’s ticket out of the hell-hole Zanu PF has landed us in, but to think that a mickey-mouse GNU headed by someone like Mnangagwa would reform himself and his Zanu PF cronies out of office is the madness that landed us into this mess in the first place! We want a mark 2 GNU but one with competent players, not the same clowns from GNU mark 1, and a realistic chance of getting the reforms implemented.

If Mnangagwa cannot deliver free and fair elections then he must stand down. If he fails to deliver free and fair elections then he will be compelled to stand down. Either way, the nation will have a chance to appoint competent men and women to form the GNU mark 2 without having to include Zanu PF and MDC politicians. The latter had the golden opportunity to implement the reforms during the 2008 to 2013 GNU; they fail and now they must go.

We must not allow Mnangagwa to hold this nation to ransom the same way Mugabe has done! Our people have waited for free, fair and credible elections for 37 years now, the next elections MUST be free, fair and credible without fail and for that we must make sure we have a competent team to implement the reforms and not a team of recycled yesteryear clowns! 

Tuesday, 21 November 2017

Mnangagwa can have Tsvangirai & co. in his cabinet but cannot postpone 2018 elections .

When one is starting from such a low baseline it is very easy to make a big impact even with just a few changes as we saw during the GNU. The scrapping of the Z$ and ending of price controls made a very big difference; the hyperinflation ended immediately and within weeks if not days shop shelves were full of goods. Mnangagwa can do the same by scrapping some of Mugabe’s stupid policies such as indigenisation, he can tell his cronies to give up some of the huge fortunes they are getting from Marange, the Chinese will be as good as their word and inject billions of dollars, etc. Mnangagwa’s problem is that time is not on his side.

Zimbabwe’s next elections must take place by end of July 2018 at the very latest. Whatever economic reforms Mnangagwa has carried out will need time to bear fruit, he will very little on the ground to show that he is his own man and more competent than Mugabe.

If the coup had happened two or three years ago I believe Mnangagwa and his team would have had time to implement some reforms which would have resulted in very significant and noticeable economic recovery. A significant improvement in their economic wellbeing would have been enough to persuaded many voters to vote for Mnangagwa and Zanu PF regardless of his and the party’s checked past record.

With very little economic improvement to show for his short stay in State House, Mnangagwa will find himself fighting a rear-guard action of defending his 37 years as Mugabe’s right-hand man and chief enforcer. He cannot deny that he has been involved in the looting like everyone else in Zanu PF. The details of the UN report naming him in the looting in the DRC, for example, will come out again.

It is well known that Mnangagwa has played a pivotal role in the blatant vote rigging and wanton violence that have become the hallmark of the Zanu PF political culture.

Worst of all, after Robert Mugabe himself, the nation blames Emerson Mnangagwa for the Gukurahundi massacres. There is plenty of mud to throw at Mnangagwa here and it all sticks!

Then there is the economy itself; Mnangagwa was a senior member of Mugabe’s government and therefore must should some of the blame for the country’s economic mess. The people would not want to elect someone who was in government 2008 when inflation rocketed to 500 billion per cent, unemployment soared to 90% as is the case now, etc.

If the elections are free, fair and credible and the people of Zimbabwe are given they first ever electoral chance to reject Mnangagwa and Zanu PF there is no doubt in my mind that they will seize it with both hands.

So, the only hope of Mnangagwa and his Zanu PF cronies of avoiding a humiliating electoral defeat is for them to rig the elections. Since Morgan Tsvangirai and his opposition friends have failed to get even one democratic reform implemented since the last July 2013 rigged elections Zanu PF still has the carte blanche powers to rig next year’s elections. Mugabe was gearing up to do just that with the chaotic voter registration exercise, buying each of the country 226 Chiefs a twin-cab Isuzu truck, etc. Mnangagwa, given his vast vote rigging experience, will find the temptation to rig next year’s elections irresistible.

The military coup last week has forced the international community but even more so SADC to take a real close look at the seriousness of Zimbabwe’s economic mess with its 90% unemployment rate, 72.3% living on US$ 1.00 or less a day, etc. The out pouring of emotions by ordinary Zimbabweans are the prospect of Mugabe being forced out of office was heartfelt; it was clear as day the people of Zimbabwe were desperate for real change just to end the economic hardship they are facing.

Zimbabwe is teetering right at the edge of total economic collapse and political instability. Another rigged election next year may well be the final push to send the country into the abyss. Political instability in Zimbabwe can spill into other countries in the region. SADC leaders are aware of this and this is why they will not tolerate another rigged election.

Mnangagwa can rig next year’s elections but he can be certain one thing – he will not get away with it. If SADC leaders rule the elections a sham then Zimbabwe will be send back into the sin-bin as happened following the rigged 2008 elections. Instead of be forced to form another GNU in which Zanu PF and the MDC politicians in the last GNU play a part, they will have no part to play this time round.

So analyst have suggest Mnangagwa may decide to pre-empty SADC and invite MDC and some other opposition politicians to join him to form a GNU and use this as cover for postponing next year’s elections by a year or two. This will certain buy him time to get his economic policies to take effect.

The present parliament, regardless how many times it has been shuffled, was elected for a maximum term of five years; there is no excuse short of a natural disaster or war to postpone the elections. Postponing the elections because the incumbent are fearful of losing the elections, as in this case, stinks! Mnangagwa can invite Tsvangirai, Dabengwa or whoever else he wish to join him in his new cabinet but he must hold fresh elections by end of July 2018 at the latest!

UK welcomes Mugabe's fall and promises to "support" - just do not knight Mnangagwa N Garikai

"The resignation of Robert Mugabe provides Zimbabwe with an opportunity to forge a new path free of the oppression that characterised his rule...As Zimbabwe's oldest friend we will do all we can to support... to help the country achieve a brighter future," said British Prime Minister, Theresa May.

Prime Minister, we, the long suffering people of Zimbabwe, thank you and the British people for your support and encouragement. As you are well aware, Robert Gabriel Mugabe has been a cunning but ruthless tyrant who surrounded himself with corrupt and incompetent simpletons who he moulded to suit his selfish purpose. He created and retained a well-oil and well-funded, from looted nation wealth, a de facto one-party, Zanu PF, cum one-man, Robert Mugabe, dictation.

Mugabe has ruled Zimbabwe these last 37 years with an iron fist. He has destroyed the nation’s economy. Unemployment has soared to 90% plus and basic services such as health and education have largely collapse; they would have disappeared completely was it not for the generosity of foreign donors such as the British government.

Zimbabweans are today the poorest nation in Africa!

Mugabe has corrupted the country’s State Institutions such as the Army, Police, Public Media, Judiciary, etc. for one purpose and one purpose only – to impose his no-regime-change mantra. The country has never ever held free, fair and credible election. Over 30 000 innocent Zimbabweans have been murdered by the Zanu PF dictatorship in Mugabe’s 37 years reign of ruin and terror.

Mugabe outwitted and bamboozled the many men and women, we the people risked life and limb to elect into office on the promise they would implement the democratic reforms designed to dismantle the dictatorship. The nation was at its wits’ end.

Mugabe’s final down fall was brought about by the dog-eat-dog fighting that has consumed the Zanu PF dictatorship as Grace Mugabe targeted first former VP Joice Mujuru and then former VP Emerson Mnangagwa because the two were in poll position to succeed her husband. She was eyeing the post for herself.

The military coup of 15 November 2017 was the climax of the factional war in Zanu PF. The coup plotters were Mnangagwa faction supporters and after Mugabe fire their leader the week before the plotters knew they were next. The coup and all the events that have followed have successfully manged to force Mugabe to resign.

It is important to realise that the Zanu PF dictatorship is still in place because not even one democratic reforms to dismantle it has been implemented or is likely to be implemented. All that has happened here is the dictator, Robert Mugabe, who has been the public face of the dictatorship has been replaced by Emerson Mnangagwa, who was Mugabe’s right-hand man and chief enforcer. Mnangagwa has been involved in most of the looting, the vote rigging and murders committed by the regime all through the last 37 years.

Emerson Mnangagwa has inherited the Zanu PF dictatorship and he is not going to implement any democratic reforms to dilute the dictatorial powers to help his own iron grip on power. We, the long suffering people of Zimbabwe, are hoping that the British government and British people will support us in our final push to get the democratic reforms implemented and thus dismantle the entrenched Zanu PF dictatorship.

There is no restoring the people’s freedoms, human rights including the right to free and fair elections and meaningful economic recovery as long as the oppressive Zanu PF dictatorship boot is on the nation’s neck. We need the democratic reforms implemented as a matter of urgency because nothing of substance can ever be achieved whilst the dictatorship rules the roost.

President Mnangagwa must hold free, fair and credible elections by July 2018, let that be the acid-test to determine whether he is a democrat or a dictator. Until then the British government must hold fast and resist engaging the regime much less Knight Mnangagwa as it did with Robert Mugabe.