If Tsvangirai is hoping that SADC will rein Mugabe on Saturday he may well find himself the one eating humble pie!
The good election results should have left Tsvangirai buoyant and full of self confidence and decisive. If they did, the effect did not last very long. Ever since Mugabe has shown that he was not ready to give up power Tsvangirai has looked down cast, confused and weak.
The people of Zimbabwe had voted for change but, it seems, it is Tsvangirai himself who was not ready for change. I believe the people would have come out in their millions to defend their vote if MDC had called for mass protest. It was not impossible to ensure the protest were peaceful and well organised so that even Mugabe would have hesitated using violence; particularly with the whole world watching. MDC could have gone for stay-away and shut down the whole country and force ZEC to release the results.
By doing nothing and discarding the only real options he had Tsvangirai left himself looking weak and helpless.
Mugabe has since seized the initiative. He has deployed the war veterans, his shock-foot troop. There are reports of Police, CIO, Army and the other state security forces who are know to double up as Zanu PF election agents are been deployed country wide. Most of these people, particularly the low ranking individuals, probably voted MDC and Tsvangirai on 29 March 2008 – after all it is only the high ranks who are benefiting from the Mugabe patronage now. But now with Mugabe back on the ascendance they are now forced to tow the line.
Mugabe’s thugs are ready to flex their muscles to remind all who is boss. He is now in a position to serious security problem nationwide. If Tsvangirai had mobilise the people Mugabe who be sweating worrying about their resolve and determination- he had underestimated it on 29 March and would not want to do that again! As things stand he does not have to worry about that!
Tsvangirai will NOT be able to maintain law and order if Mugabe thugs should step up their lawlessness. No SADC nation will want to be sucked into Zimbabwe’s chaotic situation. Come Saturday Mugabe will be back in the driving seat.
He will want two things: 1) the result of the vote recount in the 21 Parliamentary Constituencies Zanu PF has already ordered be honoured (a result that would give back Zanu PF the parliamentary majority) 2) that there must be a presidential run-off. As a sop to SADC, Mugabe will order the immediate release of the presidential result – no candidate will have the 50% plus 1.
SADC will force Tsvangirai to accept Mugabe’s demands. After all his scuttle diplomacy arguing SADC to mediate Tsvangirai is hardly in a position to now reject SADC’s recommendations. MDC is on record saying any vote recount now is unconstitutional. And the party has also said Tsvangirai was NOT going to take part in any run-off because Tsvangirai won the election “hands down”. MDC may well be the ones dining of humble pie.
As a sop to Tsvangirai, SADC leaders will promise an election monitoring team – but we all know what a paper tiger that is!
By ruling out mass-action Tsvangirai shot himself in the leg – that was his only hand and it was a winning hand too. And by going to SADC he may well have executed a perfect coup de grace on himself!
No comments:
Post a Comment