Mutambara dismiss the possibility of fresh elections in 2011. The only voice that counts at the end of the day is Mugabe’s voice: would he want to have elections next year? If I was Mugabe, I would say yes.
Mugabe’s fortune hit rock bottom in 2008. Here is the man who has led his party and nation into total economic ruin and political disaster; there was no discussion about that. When everyone thought he was finished; he masterminds the most violent election in human history that left him and his henchmen literally dripping with innocent blood. The gloves he had worn to punch his political opponents in the past were off; he had taken off his designer jacket off and was shooting to kill! No mercy! He “won” the one-horse presidential run-off; Tsvangirai’s supporters had melted away in the face of the onslaught. But it was an empty victory.
Even his usual see-nothing, hear-nothing and say-nothing fellow African leaders were shocked by Mugabe total disregard of human life in his drive to retain power. The International community refused to accept him as Zimbabwe’s legitimate head of state. Calls to have Mugabe tried for serious human rights violations grew louder and louder with each day in political limbo.
Thanks to some of his fellow African leaders – who feared that a similar fate would await them too if they failed to act – but even more so, thanks to Tsvangirai: Mugabe was let off the hook. The power sharing agreement with MDC allowed him not only to remain President but more significantly with his dictatorial powers untouched.
Talk of some one coming back from the dead; Mugabe still has the stench of death!
Ever since the signing of the GPA Mugabe has gained in political confidence as he has outwitted Tsvangirai at every turn. At the last Zanu PF Congress has managed to outwit his challengers within Zanu PF and unit the party behind him. He even managed to get the big wigs in the State Security Agents to throw their lot with him; they all pledged the Police, Army, CIO, etc will once again turn against the people to help him “win” just as they did in 2008.
Of course Mugabe knows he can never “win” a free and fair election. He is counting on rigging and beating the electorate into voting for him. He is hoping that with the MDC discredited he will not need to resort to the same level of violence as in 2008. The pledge from all the State Security Agents is reassuring – he can step up the violence if the situation should demand it.
Mugabe may have succeeded in holding Zanu PF together but with the country in economic in the gut; Mugabe will have nothing with which to buy the continued loyalty of his greedy and wasteful supporters. Being the owner of three or more derelict farmers has lost its original appeal. And many of his cronies will soon realise that there will be very little pickings from the newly enacted indigenisation law.
His supporters are pointing fingers at each other; the kettle calling the pot black. With each such story the potential of the whole thing blowing in his face is nerve racking!
The dirty past is catching up with Mugabe; all these calls for a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, the Land Audit, etc. will not help his agenda to retain power. He can not continue to kick all these issues into the tall grass for much longer.
Tsvangirai and MDC have been totally discredited; they were elected on the basis that they were not Mugabe and Zanu PF. And he has shown that he only had to give them empty promises of power and the usual dose of ministerial cars and other privileges and they will forget their promise to bring democratic change in Zimbabwe.
Mugabe is not naïve; he knows with MDC totally discredited Zimbabwe is fertile ground for principled political party. It is just a matter of time before one emerges and when it does – neither his violent thugs nor his canning will stop it. He will be swept aside like dead wood in a flood.
Those calling for a new constitution, political reforms, etc., etc.; are whistling in the graveyard; none of these things will ever happen. Mugabe is a dictator and all these changes will undermine his own position, he is not that stupid not to see that. Another year of dilly-dallying will bring those now calling for delaying the elections to their senses. The need for fresh elections, regardless, will be obvious. But of course, by then Mugabe will have lost the element of surprise in calling for fresh election. Indeed, one can even surmise that Mugabe will have been “forced” into holding elections - a stigma Mugabe would be loathed to have and one he will find impossible to shake off!
The Zimbabwe economy is still in a mess and now that the West has lost all patience with the GNU, things will only get worse from now on.
Mugabe’s political fortune has been getting better and better since July 2008. But this is as good as it will ever get. The threat of everything unravelling is real and ever present. He will be better off facing the electorate in 2011 whilst the gloss of outwitting Tsvangirai and MDC still lasts. In 2012 things are bound to be different, he will certainly be facing a smarter and principled opponent than Tsvangirai.
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