The failure to get the democratic reforms implemented is MDC's Achilles heel!

It is wishful thinking to talk of "free and fair elections" in Zimbabwe. It is tempting to point at the relative peace as proof there will be no violence but this could be the calm before the storm.

By refusing to implement the democratic reforms, Mugabe ensured the threat of violence, at least, is always there. This time the violence will not as blatant and wanton as in 2008 but will be selective and a lot more subtle because the people do not hate him and Zanu PF with the same burning passion this time as they did in 2008.

Even if violence was to play no part in this year's elections, there are other ways of ensuring the elections neither free nor fair. There is still the problem of no free media; the Police and Judiciary continue to act in their partisan way; Zanu PF using the war chest from Marange diamonds to fund its campaign and, no doubt, buy votes; etc.

But MDC's Achilles heel going into these elections is the party’s failure to implement the democratic reforms that would have dismantled the Zanu PF dictatorship. Throughout the five years of the GNU PM Tsvangirai has again and again failed to stand up to Mugabe whose has reduced him to nothing more than the tyrant’s messenger boy. By failing to have these critic reforms implemented PM Tsvangirai showed just what a feather weight political weakling he really is. And, worse still for MDC, by failing to have the reforms carried out meant Mugabe and Zanu PF still wield huge dictatorial political and economic muscles which no one, including MDC, can ignore.  

The political reality is it really does not matter if it not Zanu PF seating on the throne they will still be the real power behind the throne.

John Robertson, a veteran Zimbabwe economist, told the SA Star newspaper MDC would not change anything even if the party won the elections because they "might not have the courage to implement the radical reforms needs to rescue the economy".

The international community, quick off the block, has accepted the opportunity for democratic change in Zimbabwe has been lost and the West has started lifting sanctions imposed on Zanu PF leaders and to improve relations.

If there is no violence, the Zimbabwe electorate will no doubt vote for MDC; in the hope that there will be political and economic change this time, but of course there will be none. If there is violence, which is a near certainty, one hopes the people will have the common sense to realise that putting a weakling on the throne is not worth dying for!